Nifty 17196.7 (-1.18%)
Sensex 57696.46 (-1.31%)
Nifty Bank 36197.15 (-0.85%)
Nifty IT 35848.05 (-0.86%)
Nifty Financial Services 17779.5 (-1.13%)
Adani Ports 737.45 (-0.22%)
Asian Paints 3110.45 (-2.21%)
Axis Bank 673.00 (-0.46%)
B P C L 385.90 (1.86%)
Bajaj Auto 3287.85 (-1.22%)
Bajaj Finance 7069.25 (-1.55%)
Bajaj Finserv 17488.70 (-1.52%)
Bharti Airtel 718.35 (-1.94%)
Britannia Inds. 3553.75 (-0.69%)
Cipla 912.05 (-1.00%)
Coal India 159.75 (0.28%)
Divis Lab. 4757.05 (-0.42%)
Dr Reddys Labs 4596.50 (-1.42%)
Eicher Motors 2455.55 (0.16%)
Grasim Inds 1703.90 (-1.16%)
H D F C 2771.65 (-1.29%)
HCL Technologies 1171.40 (-1.12%)
HDFC Bank 1513.55 (-0.80%)
HDFC Life Insur. 690.95 (-2.03%)
Hero Motocorp 2462.45 (-0.41%)
Hind. Unilever 2343.65 (-1.66%)
Hindalco Inds. 424.65 (-1.72%)
I O C L 122.20 (1.28%)
ICICI Bank 716.30 (-0.84%)
IndusInd Bank 951.15 (0.59%)
Infosys 1735.55 (-0.73%)
ITC 221.65 (-1.69%)
JSW Steel 644.55 (-0.34%)
Kotak Mah. Bank 1914.20 (-2.55%)
Larsen & Toubro 1801.25 (0.67%)
M & M 836.95 (-1.48%)
Maruti Suzuki 7208.70 (-1.59%)
Nestle India 19321.35 (-0.93%)
NTPC 127.00 (-1.32%)
O N G C 145.90 (1.32%)
Power Grid Corpn 206.10 (-3.92%)
Reliance Industr 2408.25 (-3.00%)
SBI Life Insuran 1165.95 (-1.86%)
Shree Cement 25914.05 (-1.43%)
St Bk of India 473.15 (-0.81%)
Sun Pharma.Inds. 751.80 (-1.89%)
Tata Consumer 774.30 (0.14%)
Tata Motors 480.10 (0.21%)
Tata Steel 1118.00 (0.50%)
TCS 3640.45 (-0.07%)
Tech Mahindra 1593.30 (-2.23%)
Titan Company 2369.25 (-0.72%)
UltraTech Cem. 7332.45 (0.13%)
UPL 712.75 (2.08%)
Wipro 640.75 (-0.94%)

Why Your Equity Investments Should Not be Based on Short Term Market Predictions?

Why Your Equity Investments Should Not be Based on Short Term Market Predictions?
29/08/2019

One of the standard question you will counter at any meeting with investors is “Where do you see the Sensex after 1 year”. You obviously cannot say that you don’t have any idea because that would put off the investor. So you end up giving an ambiguous answer. Even as the investor walks away satisfied, you realize that the question reeks of short-termism.

When we talk of equity investing, we are referring to the very long term by default. What do we mean by long term? You must not expect great returns even on quality stocks in less than 7-8 years. The beauty of equity investing is that over the longer time frame, it not only evens out volatility but earns enough to compensate for your waiting period. Here is why, in an era of 24X7 news channels and social media, you must avoid the lure of short term predictions.

a) Wealth gets created over the long term

Had you invested Rs.10,000 in Wipro in 1980, it would be worth Rs.550 crore today. Alternatively, if you had invested Rs.1 lakh in Havells in 1997, it would be worth Rs.32 crore today. Of course, the list can go on but the moral of the story is that stock investments only create wealth in the long run. There are 3 reasons for the same. Firstly, companies generate value when they make sustainable cash flows and that takes time. Secondly, any stock takes 8-10 years to perfect its business model and achieve economies of scale. Lastly, short term predictions only focus on churning your money adding to your transaction costs and tax liability. You need to commit to equities for the long term to create wealth.

b) Short term is ruled by bursts of volatility

Volatility maybe good for a scalper or an options trader; but volatility is not great news for an investor. Had you invested in Bajaj Finance at Rs.3000 in September 2018, you would have seen the value deplete by over 30% in the next 6 months. Maruti lost over 50% in the last one year. These are not mid-caps, but sector stalwarts that generated humongous wealth over the last 15-20 years. Judging these stocks by their 1 year performance would mean you lose out on the real long term value creators. In the short term, market prices tend to be vulnerable to news flows.

c) There is too much noise in the short term

In today’s markets, the information and analysis overload simply cannot be missed. With round the clock channels and a seamless social media, it is very easy to create noise in the market. Noise refers to the information flows that create spikes in volatility. More often, the noise is due to lack of understanding of the bigger picture. When you get focused on noise, you tend to lose focus on value. For long term investing, it is essential to divorce your mind from the noise and take a clear fundamental view of the company. After all, behind every stock there is a company and that is what you need to focus on.

d) Outperformance and underperformance can be deceptive

One of the best ways of assessing equity investment performance is to benchmark with an index (either the Nifty or the Sensex). That is where the short term comparison can be quite misleading. For example, if you evaluate auto stocks over the last 1 year then the performance would be largely disappointing. However, if you were to look at a longer term perspective, then returns would still be quite flattering. Short term outperformance can be misleading as the short term performance of a stock may cloud the long term problems underlying a company.

e) Investments that gels with your long term goals

Why do we invest in long term asset classes like equities and equity mutual funds? The idea is to synchronize with your long term goals like retirement planning, corpus building, children’s education etc. In such cases, you need long term equity investments that can beat volatility over the long term, consistently create value and be reliable due to its fundamentally sound footing. You cannot plan your retirement with dubious stocks that may outperform in the short term but can be extremely risky in the long term. A very myopic approach to equities can actually end up compromising your long term goals.

The moral of the story is that even quality stocks need time to perform and translate this performance into returns. That is why; long term approach to equities works best!

Open Demat Account

Enter First Name & Last Name
Enter Mobile Number
Enter correct otp
Please enter referal code
Start investing in just 5 mins
Free Demat account, No conditions apply
  • 0%* Brokerage
  • Flat ₹20 per order
Next Article

How Can You Invest In Direct Mutual Funds?

How Can You Invest In Direct Mutual Funds?
01/09/2019

Direct plans of mutual funds enable the investor to save on costs. Direct Plan investors are not charged the distributor and trail commissions. For an average equity fund, this reduces the Total Expense Ratio by 60-70 basis points. This makes a big difference over longer periods.

The KYC process remains the same, irrespective of whether you opt for the Direct Plan or the Regular Plan. Also you have to register with the AMC or the aggregator once. The investor can either do a lump sum investment or follow SIP route through the Direct Plan. Once your SIP is registered as a Direct Plan, then it continues that way. You can convert a Regular Plan into a Direct Plan by writing to your fund. How do you invest in Direct Mutual Funds?

Direct Plan Investing Through AMCs

Walk into the nearest office or Investor Service Centre of the AMC of your choice. If you are a first time investor, then you will have to complete your KYC and you will be allotted a ‘Folio Number’. Once folio number is allotted, subsequent investments can be done online. Ensure that you specifically check the Direct Plan box in your application. The only challenge in this approach is that you will have to obtain a distinct folio number for each AMC.

Direct Plan Investing Through Fund Registrars

Registrars are the record keepers and folio managers of all mutual fund accounts. There are two key players viz. Karvy and CAMS. You can register with either registrar online to invest in Direct Plans. Of course, when you approach a registrar, you can only invest in funds for which they are the registrars. In fact, when you submit an application to your AMC, it is processed by the registrar only. So, this is an extension of the first method.

Leveraging MFUs and Fund Aggregators

Mutual Fund Utilities (MFU) or aggregators are an agnostic platform to invest in mutual funds. You will have to take a one-time registration and obtain a Common Account Number (CAN). Once the CAN is obtained, you can map all your existing folios to that particular CAN and they would be treated as Direct Funds. The advantage is that you don’t have to interface with multiple AMCs and the MFU aggregates and gives you requisite analytics for better decision making. The challenge is that you can only deal in the funds where the AMCs have tied up with the MFU. This platform is convenient and centralized.

Direct Plan Investing Through Investment Advisors, Online Direct Investment Portals

The challenge in the above 3 methods is that you still have to be self-driven. As an investor you need to take all the decisions including screening, selecting and ensuring that funds are in sync with your long term goals. One alternative is to go through on online platform of Registered Investment Advisor or through a Robo Advisor. These platforms provide investment recommendations to investors on the basis of certain details keyed in by the investor. 

Direct Plans Of Mutual Funds – How To Make The Choice?

Investing through Direct Plans requires that you are comfortable with a self-driven approach to investing in mutual funds. While mutual funds offer diversification and professional management, they are also exposed to the vagaries of the markets and macros. You must be confident to handle these gyrations. Ideally, Direct Plans are for investors who have the time, wherewithal and resources to spend in making investment decisions. Otherwise, you are better off opting for a Regular Plan and letting your broker advice you appropriately.

Open Demat Account

Enter First Name & Last Name
Enter Mobile Number
Enter correct otp
Please enter referal code
Start investing in just 5 mins
Free Demat account, No conditions apply
  • 0%* Brokerage
  • Flat ₹20 per order
Next Article

The Difference Between Regular and Direct Mutual Fund

The Difference Between Regular and Direct Mutual Fund
01/09/2019

Browse through the NAVs of mutual funds either in the pink papers or the AMFI website and you will find that the same growth or dividend scheme of a mutual fund is subdivided into Regular plans and Direct Plans. Have you ever wondered what are these Direct Plans and Regular Plans? Let us check out a live NAV table first.

Date Source: AMFI

In the above table, you will find that the DSP Top 100 Equity Fund is subdivided into Direct Plan and Regular Plan. You will also find that the Direct Plan has a higher NAV compared to the Regular Plan. Before comparing Direct Plans and Regular Plans, let us briefly dwell on the brief history of Direct Plans.

A Brief History of Direct Plans

Prior to 2009, fund houses charged investors entry loads on mutual funds to cover selling and distribution costs. In August 2009, SEBI banned the collection of entry loads from mutual fund clients. However, the official model of Direct Plan came only from January 2013 when SEBI asked all fund schemes to classify into Direct Plans and Regular Plans.

Currently, funds are allowed to debit their annual expenses up to a ceiling of 2.25% of the AUM in case of equity funds to the fund NAV. This is called the Total Expense Ratio (TER). The fund does not bill the distribution and trail commission costs to Direct Plan investors. Hence, Direct Plans are subject to lower TERs and the NAV are higher. Here are three key points.

Direct Funds Have Lower Expense Ratio

The TER on Direct Plans is lower since the distribution and trail fees are not billed to them. However, there are other costs too in a mutual fund. Mutual funds have to incur operational costs, fund management fees, auditor fees, registrar charges, execution costs, statutory costs and brand expenses, among others. Even if you are holding a Direct Plan, these expenses will still be charged to you. It is only the distribution and trail commissions that are not billed to your NAV. In a typical equity fund the regular plans will have a TER of around 2.25% while the TER for a Direct Plan will be 60-70 bps lower. This cost saving each year enhances your return over the longer period of time.

Direct Plan Does Not Involve Any Intermediary

Direct Funds are simple in nature and the process of investing, especially through an online platform is easy as you do not deal with any intermediary. You can invest directly and make your own investment choice. Just ensure that the NAV in your statement actually reflects the Direct Plan NAV as available on the AMFI website.

Choose Direct Plans If You Can Make Financial Planning Decisions Independently

The common question is - who should opt for a Direct Plan. There are no hard and fast rules. If you are savvy enough to manage your financial planning and investments on your own, then you can consider Direct Plans. When you invest via Direct Plans you do not get the benefit of the advisory services of a broker or financial advisor. Hence, you need to make your choice of Direct Plan after due consideration. Ensure that you have the time and resources to make your financial planning decisions independently.

Open Demat Account

Enter First Name & Last Name
Enter Mobile Number
Enter correct otp
Please enter referal code
Start investing in just 5 mins
Free Demat account, No conditions apply
  • 0%* Brokerage
  • Flat ₹20 per order
Next Article

Sensex Breaks Below 38,000. Is This Time To Be Cautious?

Sensex Breaks Below 38,000. Is This Time To Be Cautious?
05/09/2019

Between May 6 and May 8, 2019 the Sensex lost nearly 1,200 points in a vertical fall. It was triggered by an exasperated Donald Trump tweet on his intent to raise tariffs on Chinese imports from 10% to 25%. Global markets reacted in unison as nearly US$13 billion was wiped out for every word that Trump tweeted. India was not spared as the Sensex dipped below the psychological level of 38,000. What should investors really do?

Source: BSE (May 9, 2019)

The one-month chart of the Sensex is quite revealing. After crossing the 39,000 mark multiple times, the Sensex had faced tremendous pressure before it ascended further. Should traders and investors be cautious at this point?

A. There is a global angle to this correction

The big trigger for the correction was an escalation of the trade war. By now it is clear that this is not just a war over import duties, but a much bigger war of two of the largest economies trying to assert their economy supremacy. The US remains the market that every country looks up to and China is the only country that can absorb all the minerals and metals produced in the world. China is unwilling to commit anything on intellectual property rights and that is the bone of contention. A prolonged trade war will mean that there could be an impact on growth in US and Chinese GDP. That will surely rub off on global demand. Secondly, there is a limit to which China can retaliate because they run a trade surplus in the range of $400-500 billion with the US (as per US Census). The other option is to devalue the Yuan. That could have a weakening impact on currencies including the rupee. Hence the trade war will continue to be an overhang on the Sensex.

B. Domestic macros are a challenge too

There are a number of domestic challenges too. Despite two rounds of rate cuts, there has been little impact on lending rates. The rupee has been extremely volatile and the RBI has been using swaps to infuse domestic liquidity into markets. There is the more immediate challenge on top line growth in consumer sectors like FMCG and auto where the slowdown is obvious. Despite all the efforts of the government, farm incomes have not improved and weak rural demand is putting a limit on growth.

C. Banking holds the key for now

We have seen in the past that if the Sensex has to go up decisively, then banking stocks have to perform exceptionally well. That is hardly surprising considering that banking and financials account for 38% of the Nifty basket. Amidst this, PSU banks are struggling to recover from the NPA pile accumulated over the years. Then, there are the potential NPAs pertaining to IL&FS, ADAG group and sectors like power and telecom that are not yet accounted for. When you add these up, the question “where is the trigger for a market rise” continues to haunt.

D. You can sense the market risk in the VIX

The volatility index is also called the Fear Index as it is indicative of the caution in the markets. Historically, VIX and Sensex have had a negative correlation. This time around, the VIX has moved up from 14 levels to 26 levels over the last couple of months and shows no signs of abating. That is a clear indication of high levels of risk that markets are assigning at current levels. When the VIX is elevated at higher levels, each bounce is met with aggressive selling. VIX also reflects that the rupee is coming under pressure due to a consistently widening current account deficit.

What should investors really do at these levels?

While caution is warranted, the Sensex has shown a tendency to bounce each time the trade war has tampered. Once the rattling gets subdued, we could see the Sensex bouncing again. Other than the weakening consumer demand, all the other factors are temporary. Weak consumer demand appears to be the only structural issue and that may predicate on how the new government that assumes office deals with demand push. While traders can be choosy about timing, investors should stick to quality stocks and adopt a phased approach to investing. The more these things appear to change, the more they happen to remain the same!

Open Demat Account

Enter First Name & Last Name
Enter Mobile Number
Enter correct otp
Please enter referal code
Start investing in just 5 mins
Free Demat account, No conditions apply
  • 0%* Brokerage
  • Flat ₹20 per order
Next Article

Top 6 Equity Investment Myths That You Must Overcome

Top 6 Equity Investment Myths That You Must Overcome
07/09/2019

In a way, investing myths are perpetuated over the years; partly by history and partly by your conditioning. There are some popular myths that almost all traders and investors appear to be victims of. Let us look at 6 such popular myths about investing that need to be debunked.

Myth 1: In long term investing, returns matter more than risk

Back in 2007, Nokia was a world leader in mobile phones and Forbes had even featured Nokia in a cover story calling them “invincible”. The same year, Apple launched its i-Phone and was followed by Samsung’s smart phone. In less than 4 years, Nokia was on the verge of bankruptcy. Imagine what would have happened to an investor who had ignored risk while investing in Nokia. The reality is that more investors made money in the equity markets by focusing on risk than purely on returns. Once you are able to measure and control risks, the returns will automatically follow. You invest with finite capital and that is why risk matters.

Myth 2: Equity investing is more risky than debt; so stick to bonds

This statement is technically correct because as an asset class equities are riskier than bonds. But there is a time definition that comes in here. In the short to medium term equities are definitely riskier than bonds because returns on equity can fluctuate. But let us talk about the longer term. In the long term both equity and debt carry risk. Look at the number of bond issuers who have defaulted in the last 1 year and you will understand the risk in debt. Secondly, when you are looking to create wealth in the long haul only equity investing can get you to your goals. In the long run, the risk of not taking any risk is much more for your portfolio. That is why equities automatically become low risk over the long term. Of course, you need to stick to quality equity stocks in this case.

Myth 3: I am a long term investor so charts are not for me

There is a general myth that fundamentals are for long term and technicals are for the short term. While that could be intuitively correct, it risks missing the wood for the trees. Charts are the key to any long term investor because it gives two very important signals. Firstly, even if you have identified a fundamentally strong stock, the timing of entry does make a difference to your returns and charts can help here. Also, charts can identify breakouts, which can be useful for long term investors.

Myth 4: Large caps are a better bet than mid caps

That is not necessarily true because some of the large caps of today were mid caps a few years back. There are examples like Lupin, Sun Pharma and Bajaj Finance. You can actually make big profits in equities if you identify a quality stock when it is still a small cap or a mid cap. Once it becomes a large cap there are scores of analysts and fund managers chasing the stock and it becomes overcrowded. Also, mid-caps create wealth because of more focused business models and lower levels of debt.

Myth 5: A great company can be bought at any price

That is not correct. A great company can be awesome at a certain price but can be expensive at a higher price. If you had bought L&T in 2011 or SBI in 2010 it would have taken you ages to recover your price. Both are outstanding companies! However good the company, if you are looking for stock market outperformance then the price of entry matters! That is why investing requires that you keep looking out for bargain sales in the stock market. Investors who bought quality stocks in 2009 or 2013 would have surely done a lot better than the others.

Myth 6: Investing is all about complex black box strategies

Black box strategies can give you better execution. You make big money by identifying a stock with great potential and holding on for a long time. Legendary investor Peter Lynch used to say, “A great idea should be so simple that you should be able to illustrate it with a piece of chalk”. Take Eicher Motors in 2009. A growing market, hardly crowded, low capital requirement and a high ROE was a classic combination to create wealth. That is how simple it is! Just keep your eyes and ears open.

Before you start investing, try to drive these myths out of your mind. It will make investing a lot simpler!

Open Demat Account

Enter First Name & Last Name
Enter Mobile Number
Enter correct otp
Please enter referal code
Start investing in just 5 mins
Free Demat account, No conditions apply
  • 0%* Brokerage
  • Flat ₹20 per order
Next Article

3 Ways to Make F&O Trading Profitable!

3 Ways to Make F&O Trading Profitable!
08/09/2019

Futures and options derive their value from an underlying and this underlying could be a stock, index, bond or commodity. For now, let us focus more on futures and options on stocks and indices. A stock future/option derives its value from a stock like RIL or Tata Steel. An index future/option derive its value from an underlying index like the Nifty or the Bank Nifty. In the last few years, the F&O volumes in India have picked up in a big way and account for 90% of the volumes in the market.

However, F&O has its own share of myths and follies. Most rookie traders look at F&O as a cheaper form of trading equities. On the other hand, legendary investors like Warren Buffett have called derivatives as weapons of mass destruction. The truth obviously lies somewhere in between. It is possible to be profitable in online trading for F&O if you get your basics right.

1. Use F&O more as hedge than as a trade

This is the basic philosophy of how to trade in futures and options. One of the reasons retail investors get enthused about F&O is that it is a margin business. For example, you can buy Nifty worth Rs.10 lakhs by paying a margin of just Rs.3 lakhs. That allows you to leverage your capital by 3 times. But that is a slightly dangerous strategy to follow because just as profits can multiply, losses can also multiply in futures. Also, you need to have enough cash to pay mark to market (MTM) margins if the price movement goes against you.

The answer is to look at futures and options more to hedge. Let us understand this better. If you are holding Reliance bought at Rs.1100 and the CMP is Rs.1300, then you can sell the futures at Rs.1305 (futures normally quote at a premium to spot) and lock in profits of Rs.205. Now, whichever way the price goes, you profit of Rs.205 is locked in. Similarly, if you are holding SBI at Rs.350 and you are worried about a downside risk, then you can protect by buying an Rs.340 put option at Rs.2. Now you are protected below Rs.338. If the price of SBI falls to Rs.320, you book profits on the put option and thus reduce the cost of holding the stock. That is how you can make F&O work effectively by getting the philosophy right!

2. Get the trade structure right; strike, premium, expiry, risk

Another reason why traders get their F&O trades wrong is due to bad structuring of the trade. What do we understand by structuring of an F&O trade?

  • Before buying or selling the futures check for dividends and the see if the cost of carry is favorable or not.

  • When it comes to trading in futures and options, the expiry matters a lot. You can get near month and far month expiries. While far month contracts can reduce your cost, they are illiquid and exit can be difficult.

  • Which strike should you prefer in options? Deep OTM (out of the money) options may look cheap but they are normally worthless. Deep ITM (in the money) options are just like futures and don’t add value.

  • Get a hang of options valuation. Your trading terminal has an interface to check if the option is undervalued or overvalued based on the Black and Scholes model. Ensure that you buy underpriced options and sell overpriced options.

3. Focus on trade management; stop loss, profit targets

The last thing to focus on is how you manage the trade; more so when you are trading in F&O. Here is why!

  1. The first step is to keep a stop loss for all trades in F&O. Remember; this is leveraged business so stop loss is a must. Ideally stop loss must be imputed with the trade and not inserted as an afterthought. Above all, it is a strict discipline in online trading.

  2. Profit is what you book in F&O; all else is just book profits. Try to churn your money rapidly because in the F&O trading business you can make money if you churn your capital more aggressively.

  3. Keep tabs on maximum capital you are willing to lose and at that point rework your strategy. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Above all, when markets are beyond your comprehension, stay out.

F&O is a great alternative in online trading. You just need to take care of the 3 building blocks to be profitable in F&O.

Open Demat Account

Enter First Name & Last Name
Enter Mobile Number
Enter correct otp
Please enter referal code
Start investing in just 5 mins
Free Demat account, No conditions apply
  • 0%* Brokerage
  • Flat ₹20 per order