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Varun Beverages back in growth mode, stock still has upside left after doubling

by 5paisa Research Team 29/09/2021

Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL), PepsiCo Inc.’s exclusive bottler in India, will soon be looking to expand its operations into relatively under-penetrated markets and integrate its southern and western territories in the country. 

The company is also looking to expand its international operations and build distribution channels for other Pepsi brands, according to a report by IIFL Securities Ltd.

Citing senior VBL executives, IIFL Securities said the Jaipuria family-owned bottling company is looking to scale up operations in states like Bihar and Jharkhand.

“Per-capita consumption in under-penetrated territories such as Bihar and Jharkhand is one-third of the national average and has significant potential to grow via market-development efforts,” the report said. 

VBL is also looking beyond Pepsi and build its distribution channels for other brands including Tropicana juices and more recently launched ones like Mountain Dew Ice and Sting. 

Interestingly, VBL’s bid to focus more on Tropicana comes even as PepsiCo is reportedly looking to sell the brand along with other juice brands for $3.3 billion to a joint venture majority owned by private equity firm PAI Partners.

Varun Beverages eyes foreign shores

Apart from looking for growth prospects within India, VBL is also looking to raise PepsiCo’s market share across countries as diverse as Nepal and Zimbabwe, where the beverage company already controls 45% and 55% of the market, respectively. VBL is also looking to expand its presence in Morocco. 

“In Morocco, Pepsi’s mkt share is about 14% and the company has been constrained by the non-compete agreement for water as well as the foreign language (French and Arabic) barrier. However, it now has the rights for water and would focus on expanding market share,” the report said. 

VBL executives also say that it could look at expanding to more English-speaking countries across Asia and Africa, provided there is little political and currency volatility risks.

Higher capex

As the bottler eyes expansion across India and other regions, VBL executives say the company’s capital expenditure for the year 2022 will be higher than depreciation. 

A significant proportion of this rise will come on account of VBL looking to add a new bottling plant in Bihar as well as invest in PET capacities. 

The company will also have to significantly ramp up its investment towards backward integration, as it looks to combine its southern and western operations. 

VBL is one of PepsiCo’s biggest franchisees outside of the US. The company was set up in 1995. It currently operates across 27 Indian states and several countries including Nepal, Sri Lanka, Morocco, Zambia and Zimbabwe, where, like India, it is PepsiCo’s exclusive bottler.  

VBL gets 74.2% of its business from India, 13.3% comes from Zambia and Zimbabwe, and 5% each from Morocco and Nepal. Sri Lanka generates just over 2% of the company’s revenue. 

While carbonated beverages make up for a lion’s share of the company’s business, 21% of its revenue comes from packaged water and 6% from non-carbonated beverages.

Outlook for Varun Beverages

The Covid-19 pandemic dampened the company’s performance in the past two years, but its management is now confident of volumes bouncing back as the situation normalises.

Indeed, the company’s revenue fell 9.5% in calendar year 2020 to Rs 6,450 crore from Rs 7,129.6 crore the year before. Its EBITDA margin shrank to 18.6% in 2020 from 20.3% in 2019 while profit after tax dropped to Rs 329 crore from Rs 469 crore. But the company is back on the growth path, IIFL Securities said.

According to the IIFL report, Varun Beverages is likely to record a 60% jump in profit after tax to Rs 634 crore in 2021 and a 55% increase next year. The EBITDA margin is expected to expand to 19.3% this year and to 21.1% next year.

IIFL retains a “buy” call on the Varun Beverages stock, with a target price of Rs 1,050 apiece over the next one year. That’s a 13% upside on the company’s current market price. The shares have already more than doubled over the past year.

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Multibagger Alert: This Plastic-Pipe stock has gained by 23 % in one month alone!

Multi-bagger Stocks
by 5paisa Research Team 29/09/2021

Finolex Industries has turned multi-bagger during the recent bull run and is now trading near lifetime highs. 

Finolex Industries Limited (FIL) has become a multi-bagger stock after it has more than doubled investors’ money in the past year on the back of strong fundamentals and robust growth prospects. The stock has rewarded investors with a return of 106.41 per cent during the past year. 

Despite state-wide lockdowns imposed during the second wave of the pandemic, the plastic pipe manufacturer saw revenue growth of 71.87 per cent YoY to Rs 965.72 crore in Q1FY22. Pipes volume grew by 5.5 per cent YoY to 55,819 MT and PVC volume was up by 10.6 per cent to 50,249 MT. CPVC volumes saw a threefold increase in Q1FY22, it stood at 2,431MT compared to 882MT in Q1FY21. This translated into strong operating and bottom line performance for the company.

Over the years,FIL has been shifting its business model from B2B to B2C, which is expected to aid in margin expansion. It aims to increase its share of pipes revenue from the non-agri segment to 40 per cent in the years ahead (from existing 30 per cent).The non-agri and CPVC pipes are high margin products, thus the overall margin is with higher contribution from these segments would improve going forward. FIL’s high exposure to the rural market which is performing well and the company’s traction in market share gains in the pipes and fitting segment are key positives driving stock price.

Looking ahead,a growing agriculture sector, infrastructure development, rapid industrialization,favourable Government policies,and growing usage of PVC in flooring applications across private, commercial and industrial premises are expected to contribute to the growing demand for PVC resin and should continue to benefit a company such as FIL.

Finolex Industries Limited is one of the top manufacturers of PVC pipes and fittings and the third-largest PVC resin manufacturer in the country, accounting for almost 20 per cent of market share by capacity.

Currently, the stock is trading at Rs 207.05, down marginally by 0.84 per cent or Rs 1.75 per share on BSE.On September 28, 2021, it touched its all-time high of Rs 210 per share on BSE

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Small-cap stocks: Keep a close eye on these trending stocks for tomorrow!

Small-cap stocks In Focus
by 5paisa Research Team 29/09/2021

BSE Utilities and Power indices jumped by more than 3.5% and outperformed broader markets. BSE Small-cap index climbed 111.56 points i.e. 0.40% to end at 27,926.54.  

On 29 September 2021, Wednesday headline indices Nifty 50 and Sensex ended in the red territory at 17,711.3 and 59,413.2 respectively after a choppy trading session. Nifty Bank fell by 0.53% i.e. 202 points. NTPC, Coal India, Power Grid and Sun Pharma were among the blue-chip top gainers. While HDFC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Asian Paints and Ultratech Cement were among the top losers. BSE Utilities and Power indices jumped by more than 3.5% and outperformed broader markets. BSE Small-cap index climbed 111.56 points i.e. 0.40% to end at 27,926.54.  

Keep a close eye on these trending small-cap stocks for tomorrow.

Birlasoft – The company announced its offering of comprehensive SAP® portfolio services to accompany the RISE with SAP package. It supports ‘RISE with SAP’ with assessment services and frameworks, qualified Line of Business solutions, pre-packaged industry solutions, tools and accelerators, and intelligent automation solutions on SAP Business Technology Platform. Their services help organizations increase the speed-to-market, revenue growth, and reduce the total cost of operations. The company anticipates scaling its SAP cloud business 50% over the next three years, building and expanding its RISE with SAP offerings across its industry portfolio. 

SVP Global Ventures – The company has announced their plans to invest Rs 100 crore in setting up a 4,375 MT per annum green-field facility for technical textiles at Jhalawar, Rajasthan. It aims to manufacture protective uniforms and functional garments, medical textile, mobil tech, anti-odour and antibacterial knitted fabric for medical and cosmetic uses in apparel and expand gradually in other products. Commercial production is expected to commence in 12 to 15 months. The company expects revenues of around Rs 175 crore per annum from technical textiles. 

52-week High Stocks - The following stocks have made fresh 52-week high today – JITF Infralogistics, Genesys International, Proseed India, Manali Petrochemicals and Golden Tobacco. Keep a close eye on these counters on Thursday, September 30, 2021.

Read More : Swing Trading Stocks

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These stocks are likely to be in focus on Thursday!

Stocks In Focus on Thursday!
by 5paisa Research Team 29/09/2021

On Wednesday, the benchmark indices have ended in red for the second consecutive session. 

Sensex settled 254.33 points or 0.43 % down at 59,413.27 level, and the Nifty contracted 37.30 points or 0.21% settling at 17,711.30 level. While the auto, bank, capital goods and FMCG stocks experienced selling pressure, power, metal, pharma and realty indices ended in green adding 1-3.5% 

Following stocks are likely to be in focus on Thursday

Piramal Enterprises - The company announced that it has acquired Dewan Housing Finance Corporation (DHFL) by paying the latter's creditors Rs 38,000 crore. The amount can be split as Rs 34,250 crore to be paid by Piramal Capital and Housing Finance (PCHFL) in cash and non-convertible debentures, and Rs 3,800 crore from the cash balance of DHFL. 

Blue Star - The company informed that it would invest around Rs 550 crore over the next few years for setting up a greenfield manufacturing unit at Sri City, in Andhra Pradesh. The construction of the new plant has been commenced by Blue Star Climatech, a newly formed wholly-owned subsidiary of Blue Star. The plant will be highly automated which aims to produce globally competitive products.  

52-week high stocks -The stocks of NTPC, ONGC, Power Grid Corporation of India, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries and Titan Company have made fresh 52-week highs in Wednesday's trading session. 

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Top swing trading ideas you should not miss!

swing trading ideas
by 5paisa Research Team 29/09/2021

The deadly combination of price and volume percentage surge, which helps us to discover high probability swing-trading candidates.

Price and volume are two of the most prominent inputs used by traders across the world while swing trading. When used in isolation, they reveal very little but when used in conjunction, they help us to sort the wheat from the chaff. So, this swing trading system is based on the deadly combination of price and volume percentage surge, which helps us to discover high probability swing-trading candidates.      

So, here is the list of stocks that fulfil the criteria of volume and price surge and as a result, they flash in our swing-trading system:     

  1. NHPC: NHPC hit a fresh 52-week high on Wednesday. The stock had witnessed a gap-up opening and thereafter, the stock almost filled its gap and traded in a range. However, in the last couple of trading hours, buying interest was witnessed in the stock, which helped the stock to hit a fresh 52-week high. Besides, the volume for the day was greater than the 10 and 30-days average volume and in addition to this, the stock’s daily range was greater than its 10-days average range, which resulted in meeting the norms of the swing trading system. In the near term, the stock has the potential to touch levels of Rs 32-34 and the support is seen around levels of Rs 28.   

  1. State Bank of India (SBIN): The Nifty PSU Bank Index was the top-performing sectoral indices on Wednesday and State Bank of India was one of the top-performing stocks from the PSU Bank stocks and also, it was the top contributor to the Nifty50 index. The stock bounced back from the upward rising trendline formed by joining major lows since August 28, 2021. The stock has also formed a Bullish Engulfing pattern. Furthermore, the stocks' daily range on Wednesday was greater than its 10-days average range. Additionally, the volume for the day was greater than its previous trading session and in fact volumes for the day were highest since September 17. Considering the stock has fulfilled the criteria of price and volume, one can look at this for swing trading. On the way up, the stock may touch levels of Rs 470 and on the downside, support is seen around Rs 448.    

  1. HEG: The stock has gained over 6% on Wednesday and with this, witnessed a breakout of descending channel. Interestingly, the breakout was seen with a wide-range bar as the daily range of the stock was double than its 10-day’s average. Furthermore, the breakout is backed by a surge in the volumes as volumes were not only higher than its previous trading session but also highest since August first half. Besides, it was higher than 10 and 30-days average volume. Considering the above factors, swing traders can keep this stock on their radar and should not miss this stock as it can touch levels of Rs 2400 in the near to medium term. On the downside, support is seen around Rs 2240 levels.

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Live Webinar : India ka Start Up by Shivam Singla

India ka start up
29/09/2021

Webinar by Shivam Singla Founder of Leegality , The start up is doing the unthinkable- making legal documentation completely paperless.