Crude Oil Bill Hits $90.6 bn: Impact on Airlines, Paints and Tyre Stocks

India’s crude oil import bill reached $90.6 bn in H1FY27, the six months ended September 2026, compared with $61.9 bn in H1FY26. The 46.3% increase amounted to an additional $28.7 bn paid for imported crude. The figures come from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas’s statistical agency. They reflect higher international prices rather than a comparable increase in the quantity imported.

Crude imports rose only marginally, to 122.7 mn tonnes from 121.8 mn tonnes in the corresponding previous-year period. The government’s figures are provisional. Petroleum-product consumption, meanwhile, was lower in the half-year, reinforcing the difference between the cost of fuel imports and demand for oil products in India. The import bill is a gross purchase figure, not the country’s net petroleum trade deficit.

Oil Prices Drive Most of the Import-Bill Increase

The price change was substantial. The Indian crude basket averaged about $116.09 per barrel in September 2026, compared with $90.19 in August and $69.61 in September 2025, according to the PPAC monthly series. During September alone, crude imports reached about 21.7 mn tonnes, and the import bill stood near $15.4 bn. A rise in crude prices reaches India quickly because imports supply most domestic refinery feedstock.

The rupee value of the April–September bill was about ₹8.53 lakh crore. That scale matters for the balance of payments, but the impact on the current account cannot be found by treating the entire crude bill as a net loss. Exports of refined petroleum products, payment terms, exchange rates and changes in inventories also influence the overall external balance.

Rupee and Inflation: How Higher Crude Costs Spread

Oil imports are largely invoiced in dollars. When the price of crude rises, importers require more foreign currency for a given volume. That can add to dollar demand and put pressure on the rupee. On 19 October, the Indian currency ended around ₹94.9250 against the dollar. A weaker rupee would in turn raise the domestic-currency cost of the next shipment, reinforcing the effect of higher oil prices.

The inflation impact can arrive through freight, aviation fuel, plastics and the fuel or power used in manufacturing. Retail petrol and diesel prices do not always move immediately with international crude because taxes and company pricing decisions intervene. The Reserve Bank of India also considers inflation persistence and broader growth conditions when reviewing interest rates, so there is no automatic one-to-one translation from crude to the next rate decision.

Aviation: Jet Fuel and Dollar Expenses Matter

Airlines are among the businesses exposed to higher oil prices because aviation turbine fuel forms a large part of operating expenses. InterGlobe Aviation (NSE: INDIGO) and SpiceJet (NSE: SPICEJET) face fuel-price risk alongside aircraft leasing and other dollar-linked costs. The effect on profit depends on the price of jet fuel, passenger demand, ticket yields and how much of a cost increase can be passed through.

Fuel is not the same as crude: jet fuel is a refined product and has its own pricing and taxation. Airlines with stronger occupancy or pricing power may absorb an increase differently from smaller carriers. A rise in imported fuel expenses also affects airport-service and logistics businesses indirectly through operating costs and customer budgets.

Paints, Tyres and Chemicals Face Input-Cost Pressure

Paint makers use petrochemical-derived solvents and other oil-linked ingredients. Asian Paints and Berger Paints therefore face potential raw-material cost pressure when the relevant input prices rise. How much reaches their margins depends on inventory, product mix, supplier contracts and the timing of price increases to dealers and customers.

Tyre manufacturers such as MRF and Apollo Tyres use synthetic rubber, carbon black and other inputs exposed to oil markets. Packaging, chemicals and plastics producers may also see feedstock costs increase. The relationship is not uniform: import tariffs, natural-rubber prices, domestic competition and changes in product selling prices affect each business differently.

Oil Marketing Companies Face a Different Equation

Refiners and fuel retailers such as Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum buy crude and sell refined products. Higher feedstock prices can lift working-capital needs, but profits depend on refining spreads, pump prices, exports and the timing of cost recovery.

Fuel pricing policy also matters. Retail price adjustments do not necessarily follow global crude one-for-one. Refinery utilisation, product demand and inventory valuations can move quarterly earnings independently of oil prices.

Upstream Producers May Benefit, With Qualifications

Higher crude prices can support oil-production realisations for ONGC and Oil India. Any benefit depends on output, operating costs, levies, government policy and actual selling prices.

Reliance Industries operates refining, petrochemicals and other businesses. Higher feedstock costs may be offset by product prices or refining spreads, so oil-linked companies cannot all be classified as beneficiaries or losers.

Conclusion

India bought roughly the same amount of imported crude in H1FY27 as a year earlier but paid $28.7 bn more. This price-driven rise adds pressure to import costs, the rupee and selected sectors.

Company results will differ with sales prices, production, and funding costs. Airlines, paints and tyres face potential cost pressure, while refiners and producers require separate margin analysis. Later PPAC and company releases will clarify the impact.