PB Fintech Shares Rebound 3.5% After Two-Day Rout; Bernstein Sees Stock Doubling Despite Earnings Hit

PB Fintech shares recovered more than 3.5% in early trade on Monday, September 28, after a sharp two-day sell-off wiped more than 38% off the Policybazaar parent’s stock. 

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The shares were trading at ₹1,207.40 in early deals, up 3.55% for the day. The rebound came as Bernstein retained its ‘Outperform’ rating on PB Fintech with a target price of ₹2,310 per share. 

The brokerage’s target represents an upside of more than 98% from Friday’s closing price. The positive stance comes despite Bernstein expecting the proposed changes to insurance distribution rules to have a sizeable impact on PB Fintech’s earnings. 

PB Fintech shares remain down 33.1% in 2026 following last week’s decline. The company’s market capitalisation stood at around ₹55,850 crore. 

Proposed framework could weigh on FY28 earnings 

Bernstein estimates that the proposed regulatory framework could lead to a 40% reduction in insurance take rates. Under this scenario, PB Fintech’s consolidated revenue in FY28 could decline by 36%. 

The brokerage expects Paisabazaar to provide some cushion against the impact. 

Its estimates indicate a potential 34% reduction in PB Fintech’s FY28 profit. Bernstein expects the company to report profit of ₹1,100 crore in FY28, compared with ₹1,250 crore in FY27. 

Profit is estimated to recover to ₹2,000 crore by FY30. Bernstein’s earlier FY30 profit estimate was ₹3,200 crore. 

The brokerage has also lowered its FY28 organic premium growth assumption by around 4%. 

Cost reductions could provide some relief 

Bernstein sees room for PB Fintech to reduce costs as its growth-related investments moderate. 

Expenses linked to call-centre hiring, variable payouts and performance marketing could be lowered during FY28, while indirect costs could be rationalised across FY28 and FY29. 

Another factor under consideration is a possible move towards trail-based term insurance plans. Such a shift could delay cash flows and result in an initial working-capital drag. 

Shares recover after steep two-session fall 

Monday’s recovery follows two difficult trading sessions for PB Fintech after the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India proposed changes to the economics of insurance distribution. 

The proposed framework covers commission caps and changes across health, motor and life insurance. If implemented, the measures could alter the economics of distribution platforms such as Policybazaar. 

Bernstein had earlier flagged that the proposed commission reductions were more severe than expected, with potential pressure on PB Fintech’s unit economics in health and motor insurance. 

Other brokerages have also revised their outlook following the proposed changes. HSBC downgraded PB Fintech to ‘Hold’ and reduced its target price to ₹1,150 from ₹2,100. Motilal Oswal retained a ‘Neutral’ rating with a target price of ₹1,150. 

For now, Monday’s rise has given PB Fintech shares some respite after the steep decline of the previous two sessions, while the potential impact of the proposed insurance distribution framework remains the central issue surrounding the stock.