Sensex Monthly Expiry: PCR at 1.23, 74,000 Resistance in Focus

Indian equity markets entered the October monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday, October 29, 2026, with the Sensex recovering from early losses and trading near 73,604 during the morning session.

The latest available options data showed a Put-Call Ratio (PCR) of 1.2273 and Max Pain at 73,500. With Put open interest exceeding Call open interest, the derivatives structure indicates relatively stronger downside support. However, substantial Call positioning at 74,000 could restrict further upside.

Sensex Monthly Expiry: Key Options Data

PCR Recovery Signals Improving Market Sentiment

The intraday PCR chart indicates a notable recovery during the morning session. After opening near 1.24, the ratio briefly slipped below 1 before recovering to approximately 1.23.

This movement coincided with the Sensex advancing from around 73,300 to above 73,600.

A PCR above 1 indicates that Put OI exceeds Call OI, often suggesting a relatively supportive derivatives setup. However, the ratio alone does not confirm a bullish trend, making price movements and changes in strike-wise OI equally important.

74,000 Remains the Strongest Call Resistance

The Call OI distribution highlights significant positioning above the prevailing Sensex level.

Among the visible strikes, 74,000 carries the highest Call OI at approximately 60 lakh, followed by 74,500 with nearly 39 lakh.
Closer to the spot price, 73,500 holds around 38 lakh Call OI, while 73,600 carries approximately 27 lakh.

The Change in OI chart further shows the largest fresh Call addition at 74,000, with approximately 41 lakh added. Notable additions are also visible at 73,500 and 74,500.

These concentrations suggest that the index could encounter resistance around 73,700–73,800 before approaching the major 74,000 hurdle.

A sustained move above 74,000, accompanied by Call unwinding, could improve the bullish setup and bring 74,500 into focus.

73,000 Builds a Strong Put Support Base

On the downside, 73,000 holds the highest visible Put OI at approximately 68 lakh, making it an important support level for the monthly expiry.

The 73,500 strike also carries significant Put OI of nearly 41 lakh, while additional concentrations are visible around 73,400, 73,300 and 73,200.

Fresh Put additions reinforce this structure. The 73,000 strike recorded the largest visible increase of approximately 51 lakh, followed by notable additions at 73,500, 73,400 and 73,300.

This suggests that market participants have established substantial Put positions below the prevailing index level.

For the immediate session, 73,500 remains the first support reference. A sustained breakdown below this level could expose the Sensex to 73,400–73,300, followed by 73,000.

However, any significant Put unwinding could weaken these support levels.

Max Pain Shifts Higher to 73,500

The Max Pain chart shows an upward adjustment during the morning session.

Initially positioned near 73,300, Max Pain gradually advanced towards 73,400 before reaching 73,500.

Meanwhile, the Sensex recovered to 73,604, placing it approximately 104 points above the latest Max Pain level.

The upward shift suggests that the theoretical minimum-payout level moved higher as options positioning evolved.

Although Max Pain is closely monitored during expiry sessions, it does not guarantee the final settlement price.

Sensex Monthly Expiry Outlook

The October 29 monthly expiry setup reflects a cautiously positive bias, supported by PCR at 1.23 and higher Put OI compared with Call OI.

Bullish Scenario: A sustained move above 73,800 could open the path towards 74,000. A decisive breakout supported by Call unwinding may extend gains towards 74,500.

Range-Bound Scenario: If the Sensex holds above 73,500 but fails to cross 74,000, trading could remain concentrated within this zone.

Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below 73,500 may trigger weakness towards 73,400–73,300, followed by the stronger 73,000 support.

Overall, 73,500 remains the crucial pivot for the Sensex monthly expiry, while 74,000 represents the major upside barrier. The broader options-defined range extends from 73,000 to 74,500, with the expiry direction likely influenced by changes in open interest around these key strikes.