Why Foreign Brokerages Predict Up to 36% Upside in RIL Stock?

Reliance Industries (RIL) stock has been in the spotlight due to its significant underperformance over the past six months. The stock has declined by over 25% from its peak of ₹1,617 in July to a low of ₹1,201. In contrast, the benchmark indices of BSE and NSE recorded a comparatively smaller decline of around 6% during the same period.

Recently, the RIL stock appears to be stabilizing around its 200-week moving average (WMA) and the monthly super trend line, which stand at ₹1,200 and ₹1,198, respectively. The stock has consistently respected this monthly super trend line support for almost 11 years, last trading below it in April 2014. On Friday at 10:20 AM, Reliance share price were trading at ₹1,242 on the BSE, reflecting a 1% decline with approximately 136,000 shares traded. In comparison, the BSE Sensex fell 0.3%, or 260 points, to 77,350 levels.

For sentiment to turn positive, RIL needs to break and sustain levels above ₹1,270. A successful move beyond this point could push the stock up to ₹1,360, with a further rally toward the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at ₹1,420. Meanwhile, the company has announced that it will release its Q3 FY25 earnings report on Thursday, January 16, 2025.

Despite the recent stock underperformance, several global brokerage firms have expressed optimism about RIL’s potential upside, projecting gains of up to 36%. Goldman Sachs has set a 12-month target price of ₹1,595, stating that the recent sell-off in RIL’s stock appears excessive, as the current share price reflects a bear case scenario. This valuation assumes prolonged weak refining margins, limited telecom ARPU (average revenue per user) growth, and slower growth in the retail market. Goldman’s historical net asset value (NAV) analysis shows that RIL’s current implied discount of 26% to its overall NAV is notably higher than the 10-year average of 13%. The firm expects RIL’s FY26 EBITDA to grow by 24% year-on-year, driven by improved refining margins due to permanent capacity closures in 2025, a potential telecom tariff hike, a recovery in retail revenues after restructuring, and the commencement of operations at the new energy giga complex. While maintaining its "Buy" rating, Goldman has slightly lowered its EBITDA estimates for FY25-FY27 by up to 4%, revising the 12-month SOTP-based target price to ₹1,595.

Similarly, CLSA has reiterated its "Outperform" rating with a target price of ₹1,650, indicating a 32.96% upside. The brokerage believes that after significant underperformance in 2024, the stock has reached an attractive valuation, offering a favorable entry point for potential gains as key developments unfold in 2025. Jefferies has also retained its "Buy" rating with a target price of ₹1,690, reflecting a 36.19% upside. The firm anticipates mid-teen growth in the company’s retail segment, a possible listing of Reliance Jio, and improved profitability in the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business by FY26.

Bernstein, meanwhile, has set a target price of ₹1,520 and reiterated its "Outperform" rating. The firm expects Jio’s ARPU to grow by 12% even without additional tariff hikes, double-digit EBITDA growth in the retail segment, and stronger gross refining margins (GRMs). These optimistic forecasts reflect a broad consensus among global brokerages that RIL has significant potential for recovery and growth in the coming years.