In conversation with Raamdeo Agrawal

Tanushree Jaiswal Tanushree Jaiswal

Last Updated: 11th December 2023 - 06:10 pm

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About Raamdeo Agrawal

In the business, Raamdeo Agrawal is a recognized Indian stocks and exchanges finance specialist. His primary source of faith is the Motilal Oswal Group. Hero Honda is a well-known Indian corporation with a market value of just INR 1000 crores that he invested in in 1995.

For two decades, Raamdeo Agrawal held onto his Rs 10 lakh investment in the bike maker's shares at a cost of Rs 30 a share, until the price of those shares surged to Rs 2,600. With its current market valuation, Hero is valued at more over 73,000 crores.

In Conversation with Ramdeo Agrawal

Regard Government Growth

Question - Good day, Mr. Agrawal. Thank you for joining us today. To kick things off, you've been quite optimistic about the Indian stock market's performance. Could you shed some light on what fuels your confidence?
Ramdeo Agrawal - Certainly. Over the past two and a half decades, the Indian stock market has demonstrated remarkable consistency, boasting a compounded return of 12-14 percent. This trend, coupled with my anticipation of a robust and sustained bull run over the next 4-5 years, stems from several factors.

Question - Could you elaborate on these factors that contribute to your bullish outlook?
Ramdeo Agrawal - Absolutely. One significant aspect is the sizeable government spend that I foresee in the coming years. As tax collections rise, the government gains the financial leeway to invest in key areas that support economic growth. The recently reported GST tax collection for November, standing at Rs 1.68 lakh crore with a robust 15% YoY growth rate, is a testament to the growing fiscal strength.

Question - You mentioned the correlation between tax collections and government spending. How crucial is this relationship for the market dynamics?
Ramdeo Agrawal
- It's paramount. The health of an economy and the government's ability to collect taxes are intricately linked. As India continues to evolve, from a trillion-dollar economy to a potential $8 trillion economy in the next six to seven years, the ability to collect taxes is projected to reach $1.5 trillion. This financial strength empowers the government to drive economic initiatives that, in turn, benefit the stock market.

Question - Given the recent record-breaking highs in the stock market, do you believe this pace of upward movement is sustainable?
Ramdeo Agrawal
- While sustaining the current pace might pose challenges, it's important to recognize that markets, like any dynamic system, experience fluctuations. We might witness a brief breather after the record-breaking run, but my conviction remains strong that the market rally will persist until the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections.

Question - What factors do you believe will continue to fuel this market rally?
Ramdeo Agrawal
- This is India's decade, and I'm particularly optimistic about corporate profits experiencing rapid growth, possibly at 15-17 percent, especially in this digital era. The tailwinds of technological advancements and a conducive economic environment are creating a favourable landscape for Indian equities.

Question - You've often referred to India as 'sone ki chidiya.' How do you see this historical metaphor playing out in today's context?
Ramdeo Agrawal
- Centuries ago, India was known as the 'sone ki chidiya' or the golden bird. Today, I believe that title aptly applies to the Indian stock market. The opportunities and growth potential we see now are reminiscent of the prosperity India once symbolized.

Interviewer -  Mr. Agrawal. Today, we have the unique opportunity to sit down with you and Mr. Oswal, the co-founders of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, to discuss the remarkable journey of your company over the past 40 years. To begin, could you share some insights into the origins of your partnership and what has kept it thriving for four decades?
Raamdeo Agrawal - Certainly. Mr. Oswal and I, both being Chartered Accountants, shared a connection through our educational background and common residence. The fact that my brothers were already in the stock market business deepened our connection. Our entrepreneurial spirit and the desire to build something on our own led us to start the retail sub-broking business in 1987. What sustains our partnership is the meeting of minds, shared passion, values, and the crucial element of complementary skills. I excelled in execution, while Mr. Oswal brought strategic prowess to the table. This foundation, combined with being at the right place at the right time during market developments like the Harshad Mehta boom, has been integral to our journey.

Interviewer - It's fascinating how your complementary skills played a role in the success of Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Could you elaborate on how your roles evolved within the organization and how you managed the division of work?
Raamdeo Agrawal
- Since the beginning, we naturally fell into roles that played to our strengths. In company meetings, research discussions, and strategy sessions, I took the lead. However, when it came to market transactions, settlements, accounting, and operations, those aspects naturally reported to Mr. Oswal. It was a symbiotic relationship where the division of work happened organically based on our strengths and time availability.

Interviewer - Over the years, there have been market rumors of strained relations between you two. How do you address these speculations, and how does it impact the functioning of Motilal Oswal Financial Services?
Raamdeo Agrawal:
People love to gossip, and every few years, there are talks of strained relations between Mr. Oswal and me. However, we don't give much importance to these rumors. Trust is crucial in our business, and we've built a strong bond over the years. While we remain alert to market sentiments, especially for the sake of our customers, these speculations don't significantly impact our operations. We've learned to manage various stakeholders effectively, including employees, customers, and regulators.

Interviewer - How do you handle these rumours when they arise, and what steps do you take to reassure your stakeholders, particularly your customers?
Raamdeo Agrawal
- When rumours surface, our focus is not on their origin but on addressing the situation. We aim to quell any concerns and maintain the trust of our stakeholders. Sometimes, we've had to resort to measures like placing advertisements in leading publications to reassure everyone that all is well. The challenge lies in managing perceptions in an era of social media, where even a small message can spark discussions. Our strategy involves leveraging close friends and employees as spokespersons to convey the reality, and over time, these rumours tend to die down.

Interviewer - Looking ahead, what excites you most about the future and what legacy do you envision leaving behind?
Raamdeo Agrawal
- We are excited about the continued growth and evolution of Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Our legacy is built on principles like not allowing any cheques to bounce and honoring our commitments. We envision leaving behind a legacy of trust, integrity, and excellence in financial services. As the financial landscape evolves, we remain committed to delivering value to our customers and stakeholders.

In conclusion, Mr. Agrawal's insights offer a compelling perspective on the positive trajectory of the Indian stock market. As we navigate through this decade, it's evident that the confluence of economic policies, technological advancements, and fiscal strength is setting the stage for a remarkable journey in Indian finance.
 

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