Global Gold Falls 21.4% From January Peak While Domestic Decline Is Limited to 14.9%: Axis MF Study

Key Takeaways

• International gold prices declined 21.4% from their 30 January 2026 peak through 30 October.
• Domestic rupee-denominated gold prices fell by a smaller 14.9% over the same period.
• Axis Mutual Fund attributed part of the difference to rupee depreciation and higher Indian gold import duties.

Indian gold prices recorded a smaller correction than international gold from their January 2026 peak, as currency movements and domestic import costs cushioned part of the decline, according to an Axis Mutual Fund study.

International gold prices denominated in US dollars fell 21.4% from their 30 January peak through 30 October 2026. Over the same period, domestic gold prices declined by 14.9% in rupee terms.

Axis Mutual Fund's report pointed to depreciation in the Indian rupee and higher import duties as two factors behind the difference. The rupee weakened from roughly ₹89 to around ₹96 against the US dollar during the period cited in the report. The report also noted an increase in the gold import duty from 6% to 15% in March 2026, which raised the domestic landed cost of imported bullion.

The study attributed the international correction partly to profit-taking and the unwinding of leveraged positions after gold retreated from its January high. Higher yields and a stronger US dollar were also among the broader factors weighing on bullion during parts of the year.

Central-bank demand remained another feature of the gold market. According to figures cited in the report, central banks bought 57 tonnes in Q1 2026 and 289 tonnes during Q2, taking first-half purchases to 345 tonnes. Another 39 tonnes were added in August, with Poland, China and Uzbekistan among the buyers mentioned.

The 21.4% and 14.9% figures describe movements in the underlying international and domestic gold markets. They should not be treated as the actual returns of any particular gold ETF or gold mutual fund. Fund-level performance can differ because of expenses, tracking difference, cash holdings and the structure of the individual scheme.

For gold-fund investors, the data illustrate the role that the rupee can play in domestic bullion returns. A decline in international gold prices does not necessarily translate into an identical percentage movement for Indian gold products when the currency and domestic pricing structure are moving at the same time.