Nifty Weekly Expiry Outlook: 23,300 Holds Key Support; Options Data Signals Range-Bound Trade

As of 1:48 PM, the Nifty 50 was trading close to the day’s low at 23,319, down 84 points or 0.36% during the weekly expiry session. The index witnessed profit booking after touching an intraday high of 23,489 and declined more than 150 points from the day’s peak. The index touched a low of 23,319.10, while India VIX remained largely unchanged, indicating limited change in volatility expectations among traders.

With the index losing momentum at higher levels, traders are closely tracking option positioning to understand whether the current decline remains within a range or could extend further.

PCR Slips to 0.80; Option Positioning Remains Cautious

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) declined slightly to 0.80 from 0.81 during the session. A PCR below 1 indicates higher Call open interest compared with Put open interest, reflecting a cautious stance among option traders and limited upside expectations for the expiry.

The maximum pain level remains at 23,350, which is close to the current spot price. This suggests that option writers are concentrated around this zone, increasing the possibility of the index remaining range-bound unless there is a decisive move beyond the broader option range.

Call Writing at 23,400 Caps Upside

On the Call side, the highest open interest addition is visible at the 23,400 strike, followed by 23,350. The concentration of Call open interest at 23,400 makes it an important resistance level for the weekly expiry.

The index’s failure to sustain above this zone after the first couple hours of trading session,  indicates selling pressure at higher levels. A sustained move above 23,400 would be required for Nifty to regain momentum and attempt a recovery. Until then, the possibility of the index snapping its four-session winning streak remains open.

Put Support Builds Around 23,300 Strike

On the Put side, the maximum open interest addition is seen at the 23,300 strike, followed by 23,350. The strong Put positioning at 23,300 indicates that traders are defending this level, making it the immediate support zone for the expiry.

Adding further significance to this level, both Monday’s and Tuesday’s lows are placed near the 23,300 mark. If Nifty continues to hold above this zone, a recovery towards higher levels cannot be ruled out. However, a break below 23,300 could increase selling pressure and weaken the short-term setup.

Nifty Expiry Setup: Decisive Move Above or Below Range Needed

Considering the current price action and derivatives data, Nifty is likely to remain within the 23,300-23,400 range during the weekly expiry session. A breakout above 23,400 may trigger short covering and support a recovery, while a sustained breach below 23,300 could open room for further downside.

For now, 23,300 remains the key support level, while 23,400 continues to act as the immediate hurdle for the index. The expiry direction is likely to depend on which side of this range Nifty manages to break decisively.