Content
- The Ideal Professional Chart Setup for Early Trend Identification: Simple, yet highly effective
- Step-by-Step Chart setup:
- How to use this chart set up and trade effectively in the real world (live) with real money?
- Why & when does such technical analysis work?
- Conclusions:
As 2025 is finishing with a ‘Santa’ rally, most major asset classes are ending the eventful year at or near lifetime highs, influenced by Trump 2.0 rhetoric. Entering 2026, proper Technical Analysis may be vital. This will help us to identify the underlying trading strategy of smart money, whether all the ‘good news’ has already been discounted, and we may see some reversals of the year-end rally (long unwinding and fresh shorts), i.e. corrections/distributions or consolidations and further rally. Technical analysis, i.e. time & price action, reveals the trader’s mindset/strategies and reaction to underlying news/events/triggers. Often, we see the market react well in advance of expected news/events and profit booking soon after the news breaks out; say buy on rumour and sell on news.
In the real trading/investing world, only technical analysis (TA) or only fundamental analysis (FA) does not works all the time perfectly. Smart money (institutions/professionals) usually focuses on both for alpha return. FA/underlying news tells us where (in which stock) to enter, and TA, when to enter (price & time). When there is some confusion (divergences) about the impact of underlying news/events/FA, smart money usually follows the direction of TA (buy/sell) with relatively lower position size; but when both FA and TA converge, smart money enters the trade with confidence, doubling the position.
Despite the advent of algo/AI/rule-based automatic trend identifications, the importance of manual (basic) Technical Analysis remains. Among various indicators, trend & momentum indicators are vital to identify the underlying strength of a further rally or potential reversals. Smart money usually uses a combination of leading indicators, which can predict/identify potential moves of the underlying asset price well in advance. Lagging indicators usually confirm existing trends, whether it’s gaining or losing steam. This will help to identify potential overbought or oversold conditions and signals possible reversals or continuations of present trends. In today’s algo/AI-driven, fast-moving real real-money live trading under tremendous mental pressure, trend following leading momentum indicators help traders by providing an edge in highlighting the potential direction of the overall trend, rather than just the rate of price change.
As we are entering 2026 with a bullish momentum for most of the asset classes (equities, commodities, etc), looking ahead, momentum trading along with a contra strategy may be an ideal strategy. The market moves on Trump and Fed talks, important economic data-influencing Fed’s monetary policy strategy, various geopolitical events (like the UKR war) and sector rotations. In the real world, smart money (institutions), which actually moves the market through their sheer volume, Nevers tells dumb money (retail traders) about their true trading/investment strategy and thought process.
Actually, smart money often tries to mislead dumb money by making public (media) comments about any stock; they may be trying to sell out, while recommending buying for retail traders/investors. But an experienced technical analyst will easily identify the true momentum of the stock-whether it will continue to rally further or reverse, by simply looking at the technical chart. As price & time action is the ultimate, even smart money can’t hide their true strategy in the technical chart. This is the importance of technical analysis, irrespective of any fundamental or institutional narrative, unless there are some meaningful positive or negative triggers.
As we enter 2026, gold (XAU/USD) continues its epic bull run (Santa rally), trading around $4,480–$4,500; over 70% surge in 2025, with various analysts forecasting further gains toward $4,800–$5,000 by December’26 amid persistent central bank demand (led by PBOC), geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations of accommodative monetary policy by new Fed Chair under influence of Trump. But at the same time, we may see a Ukraine war ceasefire by January-February ’26, which may be negative for gold. So, under such potential scenarios, what would be an ideal trading strategy and charting setup?
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Frequently Asked Questions
Momentum indicators help traders evaluate the strength of ongoing price trends and spot potential signs of a reversal. This assists investors, especially active traders, in deciding when to enter, hold, or exit a position in the market.
Yes, momentum indicators come with limitations. They typically lag behind real-time price movements, which means they may not always give timely or accurate signals—especially in fast-moving, volatile markets.
RSI is a momentum indicator that tracks the speed of price movements. While it doesn’t directly follow trends, it helps traders assess if an asset is overbought or oversold, which can signal a weakening or reversal of the current trend.
Momentum indicators measure how quickly prices are rising or falling, helping traders assess the strength of a price trend. They work on principles similar to speed and acceleration in physics.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows momentum based on recent price changes. An RSI above 50 suggests positive momentum (uptrend), above 70 may signal an overbought market, while below 50 or 30 may indicate a downtrend or an oversold market.
Choose a momentum indicator that aligns with your trading style and goals. Always perform thorough research and risk assessment before investing.
No, different momentum indicators use different formulas and highlight various aspects of price movement. For example, the basic momentum formula compares the current closing price to the price from a specific number of periods ago.
Most momentum indicators default to a 14-period setting, but some traders prefer longer periods like 30 to smooth out short-term noise and identify clearer trends.