Nifty 17026.45 (-2.91%)
Sensex 57107.15 (-2.87%)
Nifty Bank 36025.5 (-3.58%)
Nifty IT 34606.1 (-1.97%)
Nifty Financial Services 17614.7 (-3.56%)
Adani Ports 717.15 (-5.94%)
Asian Paints 3143.10 (-0.04%)
Axis Bank 661.75 (-2.67%)
B P C L 376.85 (-5.81%)
Bajaj Auto 3334.60 (-1.68%)
Bajaj Finance 6807.05 (-4.47%)
Bajaj Finserv 16682.55 (-3.95%)
Bharti Airtel 738.75 (-3.45%)
Britannia Inds. 3555.30 (-0.51%)
Cipla 966.70 (7.42%)
Coal India 155.90 (-1.67%)
Divis Lab. 4937.80 (2.88%)
Dr Reddys Labs 4750.90 (3.47%)
Eicher Motors 2433.90 (-3.43%)
Grasim Inds 1690.10 (-4.34%)
H D F C 2741.70 (-4.40%)
HCL Technologies 1110.05 (-1.31%)
HDFC Bank 1489.90 (-2.36%)
HDFC Life Insur. 670.65 (-2.64%)
Hero Motocorp 2529.40 (-2.52%)
Hind. Unilever 2335.10 (-0.59%)
Hindalco Inds. 417.00 (-6.72%)
I O C L 120.95 (-3.74%)
ICICI Bank 722.20 (-3.84%)
IndusInd Bank 901.80 (-5.99%)
Infosys 1691.65 (-1.79%)
ITC 224.00 (-3.16%)
JSW Steel 628.65 (-7.67%)
Kotak Mah. Bank 1964.30 (-3.48%)
Larsen & Toubro 1778.15 (-3.88%)
M & M 853.75 (-4.20%)
Maruti Suzuki 7170.50 (-5.31%)
Nestle India 19222.25 (0.23%)
NTPC 128.85 (-4.70%)
O N G C 147.10 (-5.16%)
Power Grid Corpn 202.00 (-1.10%)
Reliance Industr 2412.60 (-3.22%)
SBI Life Insuran 1130.35 (-2.51%)
Shree Cement 25945.80 (-2.72%)
St Bk of India 470.50 (-4.09%)
Sun Pharma.Inds. 767.30 (-1.99%)
Tata Consumer 766.70 (-5.09%)
Tata Motors 460.20 (-6.61%)
Tata Steel 1112.30 (-5.23%)
TCS 3446.85 (0.03%)
Tech Mahindra 1527.40 (-2.05%)
Titan Company 2292.30 (-4.40%)
UltraTech Cem. 7394.75 (-2.81%)
UPL 703.80 (-3.23%)
Wipro 621.45 (-2.40%)

What does the history suggest about equity returns in November?

What does the history suggest about equity returns in November?
by 5paisa Research Team 02/11/2021

In this article, we will try to find how stock market participants have behaved in the month of November.

Human beings are a creature of habit and repetition. Many things that happen in our lives follow a cyclical basis. And these cycles can greatly affect the way a person thinks or feels. Even within nature, there exists a cycle, where the sun unfailingly rises in the east and then sets in the west. The moon revolves around the earth. The earth revolves around the sun.

Most of us recognize and accept the notion that our thoughts, attitudes, and emotions can change with the seasons. There is an important connection between our behaviour and the stock market as it is the ultimate arbiter of human emotion as it relates to all things financial.

Stock markets too experiences seasons or cycles. At the very least, one can make the case that there are bull seasons when the stock market advances, and bear seasons, when the stock market declines. In addition, one could argue that there are at least two or three other seasons in the stock market such as an extended trendless period.

In this article, we will try to find how stock market participants have behaved in the month of November. For this, we have taken the Sensex data since 1979 and took monthly returns every month. Out of 42 years of study, we found that 22 times in the month of November, Sensex has generated negative returns while 20 times it has generated positive returns. The average November month return for Sensex has been negative 0.54%. The average return when the Sensex gave a negative return has been negative 5.14%, whereas in the case of a positive return it has been 4.53%.

The table below shows the key stats of the last 42 years November month returns.

Stats  

Returns  

Average  

-0.5%  

Max  

14.7%  

Min  

-23.9%  

No. of Months (-ve return)  

22  

No. of Months (+ve return)  

20

From the above table and analysis, we can conclude that November will be a bad month for the equity market returns, as the odds are in favour of giving negative returns in November.

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Top-performing mutual fund category in October 2021

Top-performing mutual fund category in October 2021
by 5paisa Research Team 02/11/2021

Banking Sectoral Fund performed best, whereas Pharma Sectoral Fund was the worst-performer in the month of October 2021.

Mutual fund offers various categories such as equity oriented, debt oriented, hybrid, index, ETFs, Fund of Funds and Solution-oriented funds. Every scheme caters different types of individuals with different type of risk appetite. In the month of October equity-oriented banking sector category performed well. The return of the same category for one month is 6.35%. Whereas, the worst-performing category in the month of October is equity-oriented pharma sector fund. The return for one month of worst performing category is -3.18%. The banking sectoral fund pre-dominantly invests in the banking companies such as ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, IndusInd Bank, Bank of Baroda etc.

Let’s look at the best-performing funds or ETFs within the category of Banking Sector on the basis of one month return:

Fund Name  

1-Month Return (October 2021)  

AUM (in crores)  

Kotak PSU Bank ETF  

13.73%  

₹137  

Nippon India ETF PSU Bank BeES  

13.73%  

₹266  

HDFC Banking ETF  

4.51%  

₹174  

ICICI Prudential Bank ETF  

4.51%  

₹2,668  

UTI Bank Exchange Traded Fund  

4.51%  

₹27  

SBI ETF Nifty Bank Fund  

4.50%  

₹5,430  

As we can see in the above table that majority of top performing funds are Exchanged Traded Funds.  

Let’s look at the top holdings of the above mentioned top performing funds:

Kotak PSU Bank ETF  

Company Name  

%Assets  

State Bank of India  

30.26  

Bank of Baroda  

17.20  

Canara Bank  

13.94  

Punjab National Bank  

13.47  

Bank of India  

5.96  

 

Nippon India ETF PSU Bank BeES  

Company Name  

%Assets  

State Bank of India  

30.25  

Bank of Baroda  

17.20  

Canara Bank  

13.94  

Punjab National Bank  

13.47  

Bank of India  

5.93  

As we can see both top performing ETFs hold same companies in different proportion. These banks performed well in October 2021, and is one of the main reason these funds are top performing within the category. 

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Penny Stock Update: These stocks gained up to 10.00% on Tuesday 

Penny Stock Update: These stocks gained up to 10.00% on Tuesday
by 5paisa Research Team 02/11/2021

On the auspicious day of Dhanteras, the second day of Diwali, the equity market closed on a volatile note. BSE Realty is the top gainer whereas, BSE Metal is the top loser in today’s trade.

After the Indian equity market closed on a positive note on the first day of Diwali, today on the occasion of Dhantares equity market closed on a volatile note. In today’s trade, some sectoral indices closed up in green whereas, some indices closed down in red.

In Tuesday's trading session Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex Index closed in negative, they are down by 40.70 points i.e., 0.23% and 109.40 points i.e., 0.18%. Stocks pulling the BSE Sensex index up are Titan company, Larsen and Toubro, SBI, Maruti Suzuki and Bajaj Finance. Whereas, stocks that dragged the BSE Sensex down are Reliance Industries, Tata Steel, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra and ICICI Bank.

In today’s trade, S&P BSE Realty, S&P BSE Diversified Financials Revenue Growth Index, S&P BSE Consumer Durable and S&P BSE SmallCap closed up in green mark. BSE Realty index consisting of stocks such as Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd, Prestige Estates Projects Ltd, Phoenix Mills Ltd, DLF Ltd and Brigade Enterprises Ltd are top gainers up by 9.35%.

Today, S&P BSE Metal, S&P BSE Basic Materials, S&P BSE Quality Index and S&P BSE Oil & Gas are top losers and closed down in red mark. BSE Metal that consists of stocks such as Tata Steel Ltd, Jindal Steel Ltd, NMDC Ltd, JSW Steel Ltd, Steel Authority of India Ltd are the top losers, shedding up to 3.74%.

Here is the list of penny stock that gained up to 10.00% on a closing basis on Tuesday, 2 November 2021:

Sr No.        

Stock        

LTP         

Price Gain%        

1.        

Soma Textiles and Industries Ltd  

8.25  

10.00  

2.        

Flexituff Ventures International Ltd  

16.75  

9.84  

3.        

Reliance Communications Ltd  

3.10  

5.08  

4.        

Eros International Media Ltd  

19.95  

5.00  

5.        

Reliance Power Ltd  

14.70  

5.00  

6.        

Sab Events & Governance  

3.15  

5.00  

7.        

Urja Global Ltd  

7.35  

5.00  

8.        

Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd  

16.85  

4.98  

9.        

VIP Clothing Ltd  

18.00  

4.96  

10.        

Patspin India Ltd  

8.55  

4.91  

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Top stocks with MACD crossover above the signal line

Top stocks with MACD crossover above the signal line
by 5paisa Research Team 02/11/2021

Here is the list of top stocks with a positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossover above the neutral line.

Nifty 50 after resisting at 18,000 level inched lower to end the day 40.7 points (0.23%) lower at 17,889.15. At present, Nifty 50’s immediate support is placed at 17,613, whereas its immediate resistance is at 18,342 and 18,604. Nifty 50 successfully took support on its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) depicting that the uptrend is still intact. However, its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still trading lower to its 20-Day EMA. Also, the price is heading towards the middle line of the Bollinger band which is the 20-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Nifty 50 is still trading below its Parabolic SAR, indicating consolidation is not yet over. Therefore, at such times it is always wise to take stock-specific decisions.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is one such indicator, that will help you make better investment decisions by validating the potential breakouts. It is a trend-following momentum indicator that depicts the relationship between two moving averages of a stock’s price. In order to compute MACD, you need to subtract 26-period EMA from the 12-period EMA.

The resulting calculation is termed as MACD line. In MACD, there is also a signal line which is nothing but the nine-day EMA of the MACD. Crossover, either positive or negative, between the MACD line and the signal line can function as a trigger for buy and sell decisions. Though, traders can buy and sell stock depending upon the characteristic of the crossover but should avoid doing so. MACD can be used as an indicator that validates the breakouts or retracements.

Here is the list of top stocks having positive crossover above the neutral line.

Stock 

MACD 

Signal Line 

CMP (Rs) 

Market Cap (in Crs.) 

Grasim Industries Ltd. 

37.6 

36.1 

1,744.1 

1,14,797.8 

United Spirits Ltd. 

29.0 

24.2 

975.2 

70,858.2 

Steel Authority of India Ltd. 

0.3 

0.1 

122.4 

50,537.0 

Cholamandalam Investment Finance Company Ltd. 

10.1 

10.2 

609.8 

50,047.5 

Procter & Gamble Hygiene Heatlhcare Ltd. 

139.8 

136.4 

14,337.3 

46,539.9 

 

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Chart Busters: Top trading set-ups to watch out for Wednesday

Chart Busters: Top trading set-ups to watch out for Wednesday
by 5paisa Research Team 03/11/2021

The benchmark index Nifty has resisted near the 8-day EMA level and witnessed correction. From the day’s high, the index has lost 123 points and ended the session at 17888.95 level with the loss of 40.70 points or 0.23%. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 has outperformed the benchmark indices. The Nifty Realty has gained over 3% and Nifty PSU Bank has gained 2.37%. The advance-decline ratio was in the favour of advancers for the second consecutive trading session.

Here are the top trading set-ups to watch out for Wednesday.

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail: After registering the high of Rs 276.15, the stock has witnessed minor throwback along with low volume. The throwback is halted near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of its prior upward move and it coincides with the 20-day EMA level. On Tuesday, the stock has given cup pattern breakout along with robust volume. The length of the cup with handle pattern was of 13-days and the depth of the pattern was over 12%.

The stock is clearly in an uptrend as it is marking higher tops and higher bottoms. All the moving averages based on trade set-ups are showing a bullish strength in the stock. Daryl Guppy’s multiple moving averages is suggesting a bullish strength in the stock. Further, now the stock is meeting Mark Minervini’s trend template rules. These two set-ups are giving a clear uptrend picture in the stock.

Momentum indicators and oscillators are also supporting the overall bullish chart structure. The daily RSI is above 70 and it is in rising mode. The trend strength indicator, Average Directional Index (ADX), is above 36, which indicates strength. The +DI is much above the -DI. This structure is indicative of the bullish strength in the stock.

In a nutshell, the stock has registered a bullish pattern breakout along with volume confirmation. On the upside, the target will place at Rs 306 level. On the downside, the 8-day EMA will act as support for the stock, which is currently placed at Rs 266 level.

Orient Electric: Considering the daily chart, the stock has given a breakout of symmetrical pattern. Further, on breakout day the volume was expanded by 7 times of 50-days average volume, which indicates important buying interest. The 50-days average volume was 4.33 lakh while today the stock has registered a total volume of 30.58 lakh. In addition, the stock has formed an opening bullish Marubozu candlestick pattern on breakout day, which indicates extreme bullishness.

Currently, the stock is trading above its short and long-term moving averages. These averages are edging higher. The stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached its highest value in the last 14-days, which is bullish. Also, it has managed to close above its prior swing high. The MACD is above the zero line and the signal line. The MACD histogram suggests bullish momentum. And most importantly, the MACD line crossed the prior swing highs.

Based on the above observations, we expect the stock to continue its upward movement and test levels of Rs 417 followed by Rs 430 in the short term.

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F&O Cues: Key support & resistance levels for Nifty 50

F&O Cues: Key support & resistance levels for Nifty 50
by 5paisa Research Team 03/11/2021

For trade on November 3, Nifty F&O action shows 17,500 will act as key support while 18,000 will now be a strong resistance.

Nifty after showing a spectacular gain on Monday’s trading session cooled off on Tuesday’s trade. It closed 40 points lower in yesterday’s trade. Nevertheless, the broader market and banking sector outperformed as Nifty Midcap was up by 0.83% while the banking name such as RBL gained in double-digit and overall banking index was up by 0.44%. Nifty 50 opened on a positive note yesterday, however soon it fell in the early part of the trade and continued sideways for the remaining part of the day.

Activity on the F&O market for the weekly expiry on November 3, 2021, shows 18,000 will now act as strong resistance. The highest call option open interest (1,90,549) stood at this strike price. It shed 64552 contracts in yesterday’s trade which shows that call writers are nearly sure that the market will close below this level in today’s trade. The next highest call option open interest stands at 18,200 where total open interest stood at 1,38,200. Almost 40,000 open interest was added at a strike price of 18,200.

In terms of put activity that will give a sense of support, the highest put writing was seen at a strike price of 17500 (74,680 contracts added on November 02), followed by 17,700 (68,987 contracts added on November 01), while there was put unwinding at strike price 16800 (20554 contracts shed), followed by 17,800 (15,821 contracts shed).

Highest total put open interest (74,680) stood at a strike price of 17,500. This is followed by a strike price of 17,700, which saw a total put option open interest of 68,987 contracts.

Following table shows the difference between call and put options at a strike price near to max pain of 17900.
 

Strike Price  

Open Interest (Call option)  

Open Interest (Put option)  

Diff(Put – Call)  

17,600.00  

4321  

59253  

54932  

17,700.00  

17354  

68987  

51633  

17,800.00  

26686  

67956  

41270  

17900  

62572  

48322  

-14250  

18,000.00  

190549  

45156  

-145393  

18,100.00  

105776  

5228  

-100548  

18,200.00  

138200  

6957  

-131243  

The Nifty 50 put call ratio (PCR) closed at 0.55 worse than 0.72 in the last trading session. A PCR above 1 is considered bullish while a PCR below 1 is considered bearish. 

Following table shows the participant wise action of key players on the index options front.

   

Index Put Options  

Client Type  

Change of OI*  

% Change of OI*  

Nov 02 2021  

Nov 01 2021  

Oct 29 2021  

Client  

-14962  

-4.93%  

-318531  

-303569  

-335526  

Pro  

-4197  

-7.78%  

49755  

53952  

84353  

DII  

2000  

4.88%  

43014  

41014  

37014  

FII  

17159  

8.23%  

225761  

208602  

214159  

*Change from Previous Day  

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

Index Call Options  

Client Type  

Change of OI*  

% Change of OI*  

Nov 02 2021  

Nov 01 2021  

Oct 29 2021  

Client  

140467  

1666.28%  

148897  

8430  

157890  

Pro  

-114613  

-141.39%  

-195673  

-81060  

-188121  

DII  

0  

0.00%  

401  

401  

401  

FII  

-25853  

-35.79%  

46376  

72229  

29830  

*Change from Previous Day  

   

   

   

   

   

      

Net Change in Open Interest  

Client Type  

Change of OI*  

% Change of OI*  

Nov 02 2021  

Nov 01 2021  

Oct 29 2021  

Client  

155429  

49.82%  

467428  

311999  

493416  

Pro  

-110416  

-81.78%  

-245428  

-135012  

-272474  

DII  

-2000  

-4.92%  

-42613  

-40613  

-36613  

FII  

-43012  

-31.54%  

-179385  

-136373  

-184329  

*Change from Previous Day  

   

   

   

   

   

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