Nifty September Expiry Outlook: Can the Index Hold 22,600 Support?

At 1:20 PM, the Nifty 50 was trading at 22,660, lower by 120 points or 0.53%. The index bounced nearly 90 points from its intraday low of 22,569.65, showing buying support at lower levels.

The derivatives setup also witnessed a recovery during the session. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR), which had slipped to 0.65 in the morning, improved to 0.91 as traders increased Put positions at lower strikes.

Meanwhile, the Max Pain level moved higher from 22,600 to 22,750, reflecting a shift in option positioning as market participants adjusted their expiry strategies.

Put Writers Defend the 22,600 Mark

The 22,600 strike has emerged as the key support zone for the September expiry, supported by strong Put writing activity.
Around 1:06 PM, the 22,600 PE strike saw an addition of nearly 3.50 lakh lots in open interest. The PCR at this strike stood at 4.57, indicating significant Put-side positioning.

The highest open interest concentration is currently placed at the 22,600 Put strike with around 4.72 lakh lots, followed by the 22,650 Put strike, which witnessed an addition of approximately 2.44 lakh lots.

The 22,500 Put strike also holds considerable open interest, making the 22,500–22,600 range an important support area for the index.

The importance of 22,600 is further strengthened by the presence of the 200-week moving average near this level. Holding above this zone could provide stability and restrict further selling pressure during expiry.

Call Positions Create Hurdle Near 22,700–22,750

On the upside, Call writers continue to maintain pressure around higher strike levels.

The highest addition in Call open interest has been observed at the 22,700 strike, followed by the 22,750 strike. In terms of overall open interest concentration, the 23,000 Call strike holds the highest position, followed by 22,750.

The concentration of Call positions indicates that the 22,700–22,750 zone may act as an immediate resistance area. A move above this range would require unwinding of Call positions, while continued writing could keep the index within a limited range.

Nifty September Expiry View

The current derivatives structure shows a clear battle between Put writers supporting lower levels and Call writers capping upward movement.

For the September expiry, 22,600 remains the crucial support due to strong Put open interest, fresh additions and technical support from the 200-week moving average. On the other hand, 22,700–22,750 is likely to remain the key resistance zone due to heavy Call activity.

Unless the Nifty breaks decisively on either side, the index may continue to trade within this range during the expiry session. A breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support could set the next directional trend.