Nifty Trade Setup for October 9: Nifty Crashes 1.64% to Hit 2026 Low, Can Bulls Defend 22,200?

The Nifty 50 extended its decline on October 8, falling 371.25 points or 1.64% to close at 22,231.80. The index opened at 22,599.05 and slipped to an intraday low of 22,179.90, marking a fresh 52-week low. The sell-off was broad-based, with rising crude prices, continued foreign selling and the RBI's recent tightening stance weighing on sentiment.

Market Breadth Turns Extremely Weak as Bears Dominate

Market breadth was decisively negative, with only 3 stocks advancing and 47 declining among the Nifty 50 constituents. Nifty50 Metal, Nifty50 Realty and Nifty50 Oil & Gas were among the major sectors facing heavy selling pressure. The extreme breadth reading confirms that Thursday's decline was not limited to a few stocks but reflected broad-based weakness across the index.

Nifty Technical Setup: Index Tests 22,200 Support After Fresh 52-Week Low

The daily chart remains firmly bearish, with Nifty 50 trading well below all major EMAs. The index broke below the 22,221.85 support zone during the session and touched 22,179.90 before recovering slightly. The close near 22,232 means this support remains crucial. A sustained break below 22,180–22,200 could open the door towards the psychological 22,000 level.
 

The hourly chart also shows strong selling pressure, with Nifty trading below its short-term EMA cluster around 22,353–22,462. On the 15-minute chart, the index is attempting to stabilise near 22,200, but remains below the major EMA levels. For the recovery to gain credibility, Nifty would first need to reclaim 22,300–22,350, followed by the 22,460 zone.

RSI Enters Oversold Territory as Selling Pressure Intensifies

Momentum indicators have moved deeper into oversold territory. The daily RSI stands at 27.55, while the hourly RSI is at 30.24 and the 15-minute RSI is at 30.77. This indicates severe weakness, although oversold readings alone do not confirm a reversal. A positive RSI divergence or a strong recovery above short-term EMAs would be required to signal that selling pressure is easing.

Key Levels to Track for Nifty

For the next session, 22,180–22,200 is the immediate support zone, followed by the psychological 22,000 mark. On the upside, 22,300–22,350 is the first hurdle, while 22,460 is the next important resistance. A stronger recovery above 22,460 could take Nifty towards 22,600–22,650. However, if 22,180 fails decisively, the bearish setup could strengthen further with 22,000 becoming the next key level.