Economic Survey pegs India’s real GDP growth at 6.8–7.2% in FY27

India’s real gross domestic product is expected to grow between 6.8% and 7.2% in the financial year 2026–27, according to the Economic Survey 2025-26 tabled in the Lok Sabha by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday.

The projection indicates a moderation from the 7.4% growth estimated for the ongoing financial year.

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Comparison With Global Estimates

The Economic Survey’s growth forecast is broadly in line with projections by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF recently raised its growth estimate for India for 2025-26 to 7.3%, revising it upward by 0.7 percentage points from its October forecast, citing stronger-than-expected economic performance.

For 2026-27, the IMF has revised India’s GDP growth outlook to 6.4%, up from its earlier estimate of 6.2%.

Assessment of Economic Conditions

The Economic Survey stated the Indian economy remains stable but flagged risks from slower growth in key global markets and trade disruptions linked to tariffs. The report noted that such factors could have an impact on exports and investor sentiment.

For the current financial year, the government has pegged economic growth at 7.4%, higher than the 6.3% to 6.8% range projected in the previous year’s survey.

Impact of global trade developments

The Survey stated that India’s economy gained momentum despite sharp tariff hikes imposed by the U.S. in 2025. It noted that growth estimates were revised downward following the decision to levy a combined 50% tariff on several Indian exports, although actual economic performance turned out to be stronger than anticipated.
The report attributed this outcome to structural reforms and policy measures that helped the economy absorb external pressures and sustain growth.

Outlook ahead of the Union Budget

Prepared by the Chief Economic Adviser and the Department of Economic Affairs, the Survey noted that investment activity and consumer demand could strengthen as firms adjust to recent policy changes. The survey was presented ahead of the Union Budget.