IMD Cuts Monsoon Forecast To 90% Of Average Rainfall, Warns Of Heatwave Conditions

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday revised its Southwest monsoon forecast for 2026, projecting rainfall at 90% of the long-period average (LPA) for the season.

The updated estimate is lower than the IMD’s first forecast issued on April 13, when the weather department had predicted monsoon rainfall at 92% of the long-period average.

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According to the IMD, several regions across the country are likely to record below-normal rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, raising concerns for rain-fed agricultural areas and water availability.

Below-Normal Rainfall Seen In Key Regions

IMD Director General Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the country is expected to receive below-normal rainfall overall during the Southwest monsoon season.

He stated that Central India and the southern peninsular region are likely to receive rainfall below 94% of the long-period average. Northwest India is also expected to record lower precipitation, estimated at less than 92% of the seasonal average.

The weather office further indicated that the monsoon core zone, which includes major rain-fed agricultural belts, is likely to witness below-normal rainfall during the season.

“Quantitatively, the Southwest monsoon season rainfall over the country is likely to be 90% of the long period average,” Mohapatra said while outlining the regional forecast pattern.

The IMD noted that the monsoon core zone remains critical for agricultural output, as a large share of kharif cultivation depends on seasonal rainfall.

Northeast India Expected To Receive Normal Rainfall

While most parts of the country are likely to receive lower rainfall, the IMD has projected normal monsoon activity over Northeast India.

The department said rainfall in the region is expected to remain within 94% to 106% of the long-period average during the season.

India’s monsoon plays a significant role in supporting farm output, reservoir levels and rural demand. Rainfall trends are closely monitored by policymakers, agricultural markets and commodity traders due to their broader economic impact.

Rainfall Brings Relief In Delhi-NCR

Separately, parts of Delhi-NCR received rainfall and thunderstorms on Thursday evening, bringing temporary relief from high temperatures and humid conditions.

The IMD said pre-monsoon activity remains active over northern India and forecast cloudy skies, intermittent rainfall and thunderstorms across Delhi, Noida, Ghaziabad, Gurugram and Faridabad through May 31.

Several parts of the national capital recorded heavy rain accompanied by gusty winds and dust storms, affecting visibility and traffic movement in some areas.

According to the weather department, temperatures across Delhi-NCR are expected to remain lower than the levels recorded during the recent heatwave spell.

The IMD also warned of continued thunderstorm activity and strong winds in isolated locations over the next few days as weather systems remain active ahead of the monsoon’s advance into northern India.