India May Reduce Russian Crude Purchases After U.S. Waiver Expiry

India is expected to moderate its imports of Russian crude oil following the expiry of the U.S. waiver permitting purchases from certain sanctioned Russian entities on May 16, according to trade data and industry assessments.

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Data from commodity analytics firm Kpler showed India imported 1.88 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude as of May 14, higher than the 1.57 million bpd recorded in April.

The waiver, initially issued by the U.S. in March and later extended until May 16, allowed countries including India to receive already-loaded Russian cargoes and buy crude from sanctioned entities such as Rosneft and Lukoil.  

Kpler’s lead refining analyst Nikhil Dubey stated that Indian imports are likely to decline modestly if the waiver is not renewed, as refiners would again face additional compliance and due diligence requirements.

Alternative Supply Sources Gain Importance

India has increased crude purchases from multiple countries in recent weeks as supply disruptions linked to the conflict in West Asia continue to affect global oil flows.

Kpler data showed imports from the U.S. reached 404,000 bpd in the first half of May, sharply higher than 101,000 bpd in April. Oil imports from Venezuela rose to 393,000 bpd during the same period, compared with 283,000 bpd in April.

Crude supplies from the UAE stood at 513,000 bpd as of May 14, while imports from Saudi Arabia were estimated at 256,000 bpd.

India, the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, relies on overseas supplies for nearly 85% of its oil requirements. Supply concerns have intensified due to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global energy trade.

Dubey noted that large-scale reductions in Russian oil purchases appear unlikely because of tight global crude availability and ongoing disruptions in Middle Eastern supply routes.

Government Signals Opposition To Unilateral Sanctions

Ahead of the waiver deadline, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar criticised unilateral sanctions not backed by the United Nations, stating on May 14 that such measures disproportionately affect developing economies.

He said coercive measures and sanctions inconsistent with international law cannot replace diplomatic engagement.

India had earlier approached the U.S. seeking an extension of the waiver amid continued volatility in global energy markets, according to reports.  

Crude Prices Remain Elevated

Brent crude oil prices were trading near $107.7 per barrel on Friday amid continued geopolitical tensions and supply concerns.

The Oil Ministry had stated on April 6 that India had secured adequate crude supplies and that domestic refineries were operating at full capacity despite uncertainty surrounding sanctions waivers.

Russian oil has remained a major component of India’s import basket since 2022 due to discounted pricing and flexible supply arrangements, particularly during periods of elevated global crude prices.