India's Pharma Sector on Edge: Will U.S. Tariffs Affect the Lifeline of Generic Drugs?

The Indian pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a somewhat turbulent period. With the United States considering imposing tariffs on imported goods—including essential medicines—the future of India's thriving generic drug sector hangs in the balance. While India's drug manufacturers have so far been spared from recent U.S. tariff announcements, there's still concern over what could happen. After all, India supplies nearly half of America's generic drugs.

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Temporary Relief, Lingering Worries

For now, there's been a slight relief. The U.S. government has granted an initial exemption for pharmaceuticals, meaning that Indian companies won't feel the impact of tariffs just yet. However, the spotlight is still on India-made Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients and other bulk drugs. These may be scrutinised in the future on a case-by-case basis. President Trump has already hinted at potential tariffs on drug imports, and there's currently a 90-day pause on the imposition of tariffs in place. This gives the industry some breathing room, but for how long?

The U.S. government's ongoing investigations into whether pharmaceutical imports are a national security threat are also keeping industry leaders awake at night. If the findings show a link, there's a real risk of tariffs, quotas, or even outright bans on Indian drug shipments. And if history is any guide, past trade actions under Trump have resulted in sharp tariff hikes, creating uncertainty for Indian exporters.

Could a Trade-Off Resolve the Tension?

What if there's a way out? One possible resolution could be a deal where India removes tariffs on U.S. medical devices in exchange for the U.S. dropping tariffs on Indian generic drugs. This would stabilise trade relations, but it is still speculative at this point. Indian pharmaceutical companies, already operating with thin margins, may struggle to absorb additional costs if the tariffs are imposed.

It's not just about protecting margins, though. Indian pharma companies need to adjust their strategies. If tariffs are introduced, they might have to look at alternatives, such as diversifying into other markets in Europe, Africa, and Latin America. But generics are price-sensitive products, so there's a limit to how much costs can be passed on to consumers.

Supply Chain Risks and Market Shifts

A sudden hike in tariffs could disrupt the supply chain almost immediately. On the other hand, if tariffs rise gradually, companies could have time to adjust—but the long-term effects could still drive up manufacturing costs. One bright spot could be high-margin segments like biosimilars and specialty generics, which may fare better in this scenario. However, contract manufacturers might see demand take a hit if their clients refuse to pay the higher costs.

It's also worth noting that establishing new manufacturing facilities that comply with U.S. regulations is not a quick fix. Regulatory approvals can take 12 to 24 months, making it difficult for Indian companies to relocate operations rapidly if need be .

Looking Ahead: Will Flexibility Be Enough?

India's pharma sector now enjoys a temporary reprieve, but the long-term outlook is still uncertain and heavily dependent on U.S. policy decisions. Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) might offer a way out by providing a structured solution to this trade dispute. But until that happens, Indian pharma companies will need to stay agile. Diversifying their markets, adjusting to shifting trade policies, and preparing for potential cost increases will be key to surviving the uncertainty of the current climate.

Conclusion: Staying Prepared Amid Uncertainty

While the short-term relief is welcome, the future remains unpredictable. Indian pharmaceutical companies must remain vigilant and ready to adapt to new policies as they emerge. Until more clarity comes from the U.S. government, companies in India should consider diversifying their customer base and preparing for any potential cost pressures. In a time of fluctuating global trade policies, adaptability and forward-thinking strategies will be critical in ensuring the survival of India's pharma sector.