India will publish inflation data based on a new consumer price index on Thursday, February 13, a move that may result in higher reported inflation and reinforce the Reserve Bank of India’s recent decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The data will be released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation at 4 pm, according to the ministry’s release calendar.

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The revised CPI reflects updated household spending patterns and replaces the earlier series that used 2012 as the base year. The new index shifts the base year to 2024 and incorporates changes in consumption trends observed over the past decade, the ministry said.

Changes In CPI Structure And Weights

Under the revised series, the weight of food items has been reduced to about 36.8% from nearly 50% in the earlier index, according to official documentation from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. New categories such as rural housing rentals, electricity charges, airfares, and online shopping expenses have been added, while outdated items like video cassette recorders and horse-cart fares have been removed.
The weight of core inflation, which excludes food and fuel, has increased to nearly 58% from 47.3% earlier, according to calculations by DBS Group Holdings Ltd. Free food items distributed under government welfare schemes have been excluded from the index.

Inflation Estimates And Policy Context

The January inflation reading under the new CPI series is expected to come in at about 2.77%, based on the median estimate of 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Under the previous CPI series, inflation stood at 1.33% in December, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics.

Although inflation remains below the RBI’s medium-term target of 4%, the higher reading under the revised index comes shortly after the central bank kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on February 7 that the policy stance would remain cautious, according to the central bank’s monetary policy statement.

Market And Data Watch

The CPI revision is being closely tracked by bond market participants. Yields on the benchmark 10-year government bond rose to their highest level in over a year last week after the RBI refrained from announcing additional bond purchases, according to data from the Clearing Corporation of India Ltd.

Saurabh Garg, Secretary at the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, said on February 12 that the revised CPI better reflects India’s current consumption patterns, with households spending less on food and more on services and housing.

The government is also scheduled to release gross domestic product data based on updated consumption patterns on February 27, according to the Ministry of Statistics. The CPI data released today will be the first official inflation reading under the new index and will serve as the reference point for future price comparisons.