RBI Likely To Hold Repo Rate At 5.25% Until Mid-2027: Reuters Poll

The Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 5.25% in the April 8 monetary policy review and maintain the pause until at least mid-2027, according to a Reuters poll conducted between March 23 and March 26.

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As per the Reuters survey, 69 out of 71 economists expect the central bank to hold the repo rate at 5.25% in the upcoming policy meeting. This view remains largely unchanged from the February poll, indicating continued expectations of a prolonged pause in rates.

Inflation And Growth Trends

Inflation has remained below the central bank’s medium-term target of 4% for about a year, according to Reuters poll data. The survey projects inflation to average 4.3% over the next two financial years.

Economic growth is also expected to continue at a steady rate, and this has been reflected by this poll that forecasts an average growth rate of 7.0%. All these factors have helped the central bank to stick to its present policy.

Impact Of Global Developments

Reuters has conducted a poll that has pointed out that the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has created a major problem for global oil supply. India is one of those oil-importing nations that is affected by this conflict. Crude oil prices are still above $100 a barrel.

Despite these developments, most economists expect the central bank to maintain its neutral stance, which has been in place since June, given the uncertainty surrounding the duration and impact of the conflict.

Policy Outlook From Economists

In accordance with this, Reuters has conducted a poll in which a majority of economists are of the opinion that it is too early to think of altering policy rates. At the same time, it has been highlighted that inflation and growth forecasts have remained unchanged in spite of global conditions.

In terms of identifying potential risks to the economy, it has been identified that a combination of low growth and high inflation is a major concern for the financial year 2026-27, as identified by 30 out of 37 Reuters poll respondents.

This is a clear indication that the central bank is likely to continue keeping a watch on global and local conditions, keeping its current policy stance unchanged in accordance with unchanged inflation and growth forecasts.