Indian Exports to the U.S. Fall 37.5% in Four Months After Tariff Hike: GTRI Report

India’s exports to the United States have witnessed a steep decline following Washington’s decision to impose higher import tariffs on Indian goods. According to the latest report from the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), exports fell by 37.5% between May and September 2025, as 50% tariffs disrupted one of India’s key trade corridors.

The report highlighted that shipments plunged from $8.8 billion in May 2025 to $5.5 billion in September 2025, marking the sharpest and most consistent fall recorded this year. GTRI stated, “Washington’s 50% tariffs led to a 37.5% drop in Indian exports to the U.S.A. in four months,” signalling how the tariff shock has directly impacted India’s export competitiveness in the American market.

Continuous Monthly Decline

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The data revealed that the decline started almost immediately after the tariff policy came into effect. While exports grew 4.8% in May to reach $8.8 billion, they subsequently fell month after month — dropping 5.7% in June ($8.3 billion), 3.6% in July ($8.0 billion), 13.8% in August ($6.9 billion), and finally plunging 20.3% in September ($5.5 billion). The September figure represents the sharpest single-month fall of 2025 so far.

Between May and September, India’s exports to the U.S. collectively lost more than $3.3 billion in monthly value, making the U.S. “India’s most adversely affected export destination” during this period, according to GTRI.

Sectors Under Pressure

The industries that have historically accounted for the majority of India's exports have seen the most severe effects. Engineering products, chemicals, textiles, and gems, and jewellery have all had large contractions, each of which has significantly contributed to the total downturn. These industries are key employment creators, prompting concerns about the possible impact on manufacturing jobs and the broader supply chain.

In order to lessen India's excessive reliance on the U.S., the research also cautioned that the tariff increase has shown India's export weaknesses and emphasised the necessity of market diversification and policy changes. According to analysts, increasing domestic competitiveness and entering new international markets may lessen the impact of these trade disruptions.

Conclusion

The 37.5% drop in exports to the U.S. underscores the far-reaching consequences of Washington’s 50% tariff regime on India’s trade performance. Moving forward, experts suggest that India must adopt a balanced and resilient trade strategy — one that promotes market diversification, domestic value addition, and targeted export incentives. Such measures will be essential to safeguard the nation’s global trade position and strengthen its economic stability against external shocks