US Coal Exports to India Set to Increase Amid China Tariffs

The United States is expected to increase coal exports to India following China's decision to impose tariffs on energy imports from the U.S., according to five industry officials. This shift could potentially reduce the market shares of Australia and Russia in India.

Last week, China's Finance Ministry announced a 15% tariff on U.S. coal imports. Industry experts suggest this may lead U.S. coal producers to redirect shipments to India, the world's second-largest coal importer after China.
"Three U.S. coal shipments originally destined for China have arrived in India, with around ten more waiting. These are large capesize vessels, which could further drive down prices," said Vasudev Pamnani, director at India's I-Energy Natural Resources. Speaking at the Coaltrans India conference on Monday, he also noted that an increase in U.S. coal imports could affect Australia's market share in India.

Although the U.S. represents a relatively small portion of China's total coal imports, the value of U.S. coking coal shipments—primarily used in steelmaking—rose by nearly a third to $1.84 billion in 2024.
Malcolm Roberts, chief marketing officer at Peabody Energy, the largest U.S. coal producer, mentioned in a recent analyst call that U.S. coal could increasingly be directed to India, while Australian coal might find more demand in China due to the new tariffs.

Over the last decade, Australia dominated India's coking coal imports, accounting for approximately 80% of shipments. However, its share fell to 62% in 2024 as India diversified its suppliers, sourcing coal from the U.S., Russia, and Mozambique.

Australia may now reclaim some of its lost market share in China, where it previously accounted for over two-thirds of coking coal imports before China imposed an unofficial ban in 2021. Currently, Mongolia and Russia are China's leading suppliers of coking coal.

In 2024, U.S. coking coal accounted for 9% of China's market, while Australia contributed 8%, according to Chinese customs data