‘Very Big’ Trade Deal with India Could Be Next, Says Trump After China Pact

At Thursday’s “Big Beautiful Bill” event at the White House, Trump told reporters, “We just signed with China yesterday... Now we’ve got some great deals coming. One might be with India. A very big one. We’re going to open up India.” He compared it to the China agreement, which includes a commitment from Beijing to speed up rare earth metal exports to the U.S.

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The deal with China, which Trump described as “signed and sealed”, focused on easing tariffs and securing rare earth minerals vital to American tech and manufacturing. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said it also reinforced international trade rules under the Geneva framework, marking a pause in the long-running trade tensions between the two nations.

U.S.-India Trade Talks: What’s at Stake?

With a July 9 deadline approaching for a temporary freeze on new tariffs, negotiations between the U.S. and India are in a tough spot. If no deal is reached, the U.S. could slap a 26% tariff on a wide range of Indian goods, everything from auto parts to farm products. The tariff announcement on Trump's 'Liberation Day' had resulted in a 5% drop in the Nifty 50 index in the following week. 

For India, agriculture is a major sticking point. With nearly half of its population working in farming, opening the door to U.S. wheat, dairy, and corn could lead to serious political blowback at home. Still, India isn’t just saying “no”. It’s offering some trade-offs, like zero tariffs on U.S. almonds, pistachios, energy products, and defence gear. And Indian exports to the U.S. remain strong.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has made India’s stance clear: the country wants a fair deal, not a one-sided one. She pushed back on Trump’s past criticism of India’s tariffs, defending India’s right to protect its own economy.

Tight Deadlines and High Hopes

Trade experts are cautiously hopeful. That July 9 deadline is coming fast, and unless top leaders step in, it’s unclear if a breakthrough will happen in time. Still, there’s always the chance for a last-minute save.

Trump’s promise to deliver “90 deals in 90 days” hasn’t exactly panned out. Apart from the UK and China, there’s not much to show. The India deal has been mentioned often but remains vague in structure.

The recent China pact focused heavily on rare earth minerals, critical for electric vehicles, defence systems, and high-tech manufacturing. That sets the tone for what the U.S. might want from India next.

Earlier this year, Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched “Mission 500”, a plan to double U.S.-India trade to $500 billion by 2030. So there's already a roadmap; now they just need to move the needle.

Global Trade Pressure & Domestic Politics

Markets are holding steady for now, but traders and businesses are keeping a close watch. Trump’s deadlines are known to be, well, flexible. But that doesn’t mean the pressure is off.

India is insisting on balance, lower tariffs, stronger regulatory clarity, and protection for its farm sector. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal recently emphasised the need for a deal that works for both sides.

Over in Washington, the White House is doubling down on its “selective dealmaking” strategy. As Trump bluntly put it: “Some we are just going to send a letter… You are to pay 25, 35, or 45%... My people don’t want to do it that way.”

What to Watch Next

India’s trade team is already in Washington for final talks before the July 9 deadline. But key disagreements over agriculture, autos, steel, and alcohol still remain. 

Any last-minute deal may need a personal push from Trump and Modi. For now, markets are calm, but that could change fast if tariffs kick back in after July 9. Trump’s teaser about a “very big” deal with India comes just after a high-stakes agreement with China. With only two weeks until tariffs could return, time is running out.

Can the U.S. and India strike a game-changing trade deal? Or will it all come down to missed deadlines and mismatched expectations? One thing’s clear: this could be a defining moment in U.S.-India economic ties.