Synchronised global or even local economic or financial crises often cause widespread hardships through job losses, business failures, bankruptcies and subsequent asset price (stock market, real estate, etc.) crashes. Although for the majority, it may cause wealth destruction, paradoxically, it may also trigger immense wealth creation for the minority contra investors (smart money/professional investors). During an economic recession or financial crisis, asset prices generally plummet, and policymakers usually respond with a huge monetary & fiscal stimulus. Smart money (usually institutions and HNIs), with a proper contrarian and risk/money management strategy, takes the market correction & volatility as an opportunity to buy blue-chip assets/companies available at a big discount. It’s like buying a good business model/asset at a temporary distress. Such economic/financial crises often follow bubble zone valuations in an overleveraged system. But overall, it’s a part & parcel of the age-old boom & bust economic & market cycle.
Generally, professional & smart money (institutions) buy stocks in a deep correction ─ when the street is bloody, and there is a sense of panic. They consider both fundamentals (like PEG ratios, the average of DCF and relative valuations, etc.) and also technicals (like 200 DEMA, pattern breakdown targets, FIBB ratios, etc.). After such a deep correction led by any financial/economic/geopolitical crisis, prices often go beyond a normal 5-10% cyclical correction to over a 20-50% structural correction. Institutions and HNIs generally preserve cash for such once-in-a-decade opportunities to buy good companies at temporary distress.
As seen in the above chart/meter, in the moderate to extreme bear market, when prices reach the dark green zone, investors should buy rather than sell/exit in panic and book profit/sell when prices reach the red zone after a few months/years. In brief, investors should buy stocks during the bear market phase, when there are panics on the street and too much pessimism, and book handsome profits during the bull market phase, when there is too much optimism (the simple buy low and sell high approach, not the opposite).
Smart money accumulates (buys) stocks systematically from the moderate to deep green zone and sells or books profits gradually from mild to extreme red zones. An alternative F&O strategy may also include long/short. Smart money generally uses both fundamentals and technicals (qualitative & quantitative analysis) for proper entry & exit for alpha return and wealth multiplication. In the modern market, only fundamentals (where) or only technicals (when) will not work; investors/traders have to combine both for the potential superior return ─ maximise gains & minimise risks. The grey (neutral) zone in the above graph/circle may be seen as a consolidation or distribution zone. Even if an investor misses the ‘buy’ bus in the preferred green zone, he may enter part of the neutral grey zone and should again add if it falls to the green zone or book a profit if it goes to the red zone.
Overall, these financial/economic crises may also be categorised as Black/White SWAN events (completely unexpected or even expected). Globally, events like WW-I, the Spanish Flu, the Great Depression of 1930-1940, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID pandemic illustrate this duality. Apart from the global shocks spillover effect, some local shocks like demonetisation (2016) were amplified by policy interventions and sectoral shifts. Markets often plummet 20-40% but recover sharply, driven by stimulus, innovation, and pent-up demand—creating temporary multibaggers to multibaggers in the coming years. Ordinary patients and long-term investors turn into millionaires or even billionaires.
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