Reliance Q4 FY25 Expectations: Mixed Bag Expected as Retail and Jio Gain, O2C Faces Pressure

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), led by Mukesh Ambani, is set to announce its financial results for the fourth quarter (Q4 FY25) and the full year ended March 31, 2025, on Friday, April 25. According to a Moneycontrol survey of eight analysts, the conglomerate is expected to post mixed results, with gains in its digital and retail businesses offset by weakness in its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) and upstream oil and gas segments. Reliance Q4 results are expected to show strong performance in Jio and retail segments, while the O2C business may face pressure.

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Expected Financial Performance

The Reliance Industries (RIL) revenue for the quarter is projected at ₹2.38 lakh crore, marginally higher than ₹2.37 lakh crore reported in the same period last year. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are estimated at ₹43,491.6 crore, up slightly from ₹42,516 crore year-on-year. However, net profit is expected to remain mostly unchanged at ₹18,820 crore, compared to ₹18,951 crore in Q4 FY24.

Check Reliance Q4 results on Results Express 

Segment-Wise Breakdown

• O2C Segment: The oil-to-chemicals business is expected to report a 14% year-on-year decline in EBITDA, with margins coming under pressure due to higher feedstock costs and weaker global product cracks. Benchmark Singapore's Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) have fallen 58% from a year ago, which could weigh on refining performance. However, processing discounted crude from Russia, Iraq, and Venezuela will likely provide some cushion to GRMs.
• Oil & Gas Segment: EBITDA for the oil and gas business is likely to drop 9% year-on-year and 8% sequentially, mainly due to lower output from the KG-D6 block. This is despite a 2% annual rise in deepwater gas prices.
• Digital Services (Jio): Jio is expected to deliver a substantial 16% growth in EBITDA every year and 2% sequentially. This growth is attributed to higher ARPU, which has risen by 13% year-on-year, aided by recent tariff hikes and a growing subscriber base.
• Retail Segment: The retail business is likely to post 11% year-on-year growth in EBITDA, supported by increased store expansion, better margins, and improved realisations. However, analysts predict a 9% sequential dip due to the post-festive season slowdown and a shorter quarter.

Key Investor Focus Areas

Investors will closely watch updates on the following:

• IPO plans for Jio (targeted in 2025) and retail segment
• 5G rollout and digital expansion
• Retail store growth and revenue outlook
• O2C segment’s strategy amid global weakness
• Exploration updates on the KG-D6 block
• Proposed dividend for FY25 and potential fundraising via NCDs

Market Sentiment and Stock Movement

RIL’s share price was last seen at ₹1,296.60, down 0.39% from the previous close. It touched an intraday high of ₹1,325.25 and a low of ₹1,290. The stock faces resistance at ₹1,320, with a 4.6% rise in open interest, suggesting a possible sideways movement ahead.

Conclusion

The market anticipates a mixed outcome as Reliance unveils its Q4 results. While digital and retail segments remain strong growth drivers, challenges in the O2C and upstream businesses may weigh on overall performance. Investors await the numbers and the strategic outlook on IPOs, dividends, and expansion plans.