India Inc net profits likely to fall sharply in Q2FY23

As the September 2022 quarter (Q2FY23) earnings season begins, early estimate by brokers are that the season could be fairly dull and boring with tepid sales growth and negative earnings growth. Sectorally, the banks and auto firms are likely report good earnings growth, but overall the profits are likely to be dragged down by the EBITDA losses of oil marketing companies viz. IOCL, BPCL and HPCL. In addition, the profits of cement manufacturers is likely to be under strain due to high input costs while producers of metals and minerals are likely to be hit by weak realisations on the back of tepid LME prices.

If oil and cement stocks are included, the profit fall could be as high as 26% according to a report by Kotak Institutional. Even if these stocks are excluded, the negative contraction would still be around 9%. The one redeeming sector will be the auto sector thanks to the better supply of chips and higher ASP (average selling prices). Auto companies are likely to witness high single-digit revenue growth on sequential basis. That is already evident in the strong volumes posted by four wheelers and two-wheelers.

The all-important IT pack will see revenues grow by 2.5-5% sequentially in constant currency terms, while it would be about 100 bps better for the larger players. Consumer discretionary and stables producers are likely to see good top line growth but gross margin pressures during due to higher raw material costs. What about the banks? Banks are likely to see robust y-o-y earnings growth helped by lower provisioning for loans, as well as due to advances growing by more than 15%. The issue of yields impacting bond values is also limited. Overall, it will be a case of profits spoiling the revenue story in Q2FY23.