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Indian Exchanges Report: Equities remain stable, Derivatives soared and Commodities dragged

by 5paisa Research Team 18/10/2021

Year 2020 and Year 2021 has seemed to prove to be a blockbuster for the Indian Exchanges so far. Let’s look at some data points that support the case.
The volumes significantly increased across all segments in September ’21. Equity Cash segment ADTV (average daily turnover value) grew up by 23% for NSE and 93% for BSE respectively on Y-o-Y basis while BSE was down by 1% and NSE down by 11% on Q-o-Q basis.


While Cash segment has some stability, the Equity Derivatives segment number roared loud. The ADTV of NSE’s total equity derivative stood at Rs. 69trn in Sept’21 vs Rs. 57trn in Aug’21, up by ~21%. NSE Options ADTV grew up by ~20% to Rs. 67trn and Futures grew up by ~13% to Rs. 1.2trn. While party was at NSE, it was a grimmer picture for BSE with Options ADTV declining sharply by 46% to Rs. 1.6trn.


Along with Equity Derivatives, the Currency Derivatives outperformed too and had highest volumes in past 5 months. NSE currency derivatives ADTV grew up by 31% to Rs. 709bn while BSE currency derivatives ADTV grew by 30% to Rs. 253bn on YoY basis. While on MoM basis the figures stood at 32% for NSE and 5.7% for BSE. NSE’s market share stood at ~74% while BSE’s stood at ~26% in September 2021.
On mutual fund platforms front, number of orders processed on the BSE mutual fund platform grew by 111% to 15.1mn while on the NSE mutual fund platform grew by 89% to 2.97mn.


The Commodity segment faced the heat with ADTV in Sept’21 was dramatically down by 25% YoY and up by merely 2% MoM at Rs. 256bn. Even the soaring prices of Natural Gas and Crude, the ADTV was range bound between Rs. 250-260bn since March’21. The MoM 2% increase was due to higher volumes in Gold trades and Natural Gas prices. However, Gold was also the reason behind the dramatic 25% YoY decline as Gold ADTV dropped by 50% YoY on basis of lower traded volumes. 


Overall, MCX ADTV was down by 32% on YoY basis and by 9% MoM basis. MCX commodity Options segments cheered along with MCX Options ADTV stood at Rs. 76bn in Sept’21 vs 60bn in Aug’21. The increased in ADTV was mainly led by Options volume in Crude and Gold. In MCX index futures universe, Bullion ADTV grew up by 9% and Metal Indices ADTV grew up 21% MoM basis in Sept’21
Upon monthly performance check, CDSL has been given a “REDUCE” Rating, BSE “HOLD” rating and MCX “BUY” Rating.

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Multibagger Stock: An investment of Rs 1 lakh in this stock became Rs 235 lakh in 10 years.

Multibagger Stock: An investment of Rs 1 lakh in this stock became Rs 235 lakh in 10 years.
by 5paisa Research Team 18/10/2021

Alkyl Amine has swelled the wealth of long term investors with strong deliverables.

The Indian stock market is reaching new heights in each trading session and speciality chemicals have been at the gainer’s end.

The multibagger stock of Alkyl Amine has risen from Rs 1228 to Rs 4010 in the last one year, a rise of around a 226% in this period. Likewise in year-to-date time, this multibagger stock has risen from Rs 1552.20 levels logging around a 158% rise in 2021.

The gravity of the exponential price returns delivered by the company can be exhibited on a timeline given as under:

  • One year ago, an investment of Rs 1 lakh would have fetched an investor Rs 2.6 lakh approximately.

  • 5 years ago, an investment of Rs 1 lakh would be worth around Rs 28 lakh.  

  • 10 years ago if the same Rs 1 lakh was to be invested, it would have turned into Rs 235 lakh.

*The above phenomenal returns would have been only possible for investors who would have stayed invested in this multibagger for the said period under consideration.

The obvious question that surfaces is, how this chemical company delivered such astounding returns?

Alkyl Amines Chemicals Ltd (AACL) is a public Limited Listed Company promoted in 1979. The company is a global supplier of amines and amine-based chemicals to the pharmaceutical, agrochemical, rubber chemical and water treatment industries, among others. It has established a leading position in the domestic market and presence in the international market with a reputation for reliable service and quality products.

Its product line boasts of more than 100 products mostly developed in-house. It is the global leader of Ethyl Amines, one of the leading players globally in DEHA, one of the largest producers of DMA-HCL.

It has over the years also diversified into value-added products like amine derivatives and speciality chemicals.

The bull rally may be triggered by the anticipation of rising demand for amine producers for vaccines. Almost 75% of amines are consumed by pharmaceuticals (50%) and agrochemicals (25%). The positive sentiment has been supported by the long-standing fundamentals of the company over the years defying any windfall gains that are short-lived.

The following table exhibiting the average financial performance of the company over five year period (from 2017 to 2021) validates its strength.  

Key Metrics  

Net Sales Growth  

EBIT Margins  

PAT Margins  

Cash Profit  

Margin’s   

Return on Equity  

  

21.28%  

21.78%  

14.98%  

17.61%  

32.83%  

The company has continued to give double-digit growth and margins over the years and in the recently reported quarter one of FY 2022, the turnover soared 59.82% to Rs. 392 crore compared to Rs 245 crore during the corresponding quarter last year. Net Profit recorded in the quarter ended June 2021 rose to 48.81% to Rs 79 crore compared to Rs 53 crore in the corresponding previous quarter. The strong rally in the stock may make it appear as overbought, but the outlook for speciality chemicals remain strong and the price of amines are also expected to remain strong in the foreseeable future. Alkyl Amines being the leading producer of amines in India has been delivering improved performance and quadrupled returns for its investors.

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Rs 160 crore to Rs 350 crore in less than a year. Which stocks turned multibagger for Dolly Khanna?

Rs 160 crore to Rs 350 crore in less than a year. Which stocks turned multibagger for Dolly Khanna?
by 5paisa Research Team 18/10/2021

While Nifty small-cap and mid-cap have doubled in the covid recovery phase, Dolly Khanna net worth multiplied 2.2x times to Rs 350 crore in a matter of 10 months.
 

The net worth of Dolly Khanna was Rs 160 crore in December 2020, and currently it has multiplied 2.2x times to Rs 350 crore in a matter of 10 months.

Here is the list of top-performing stocks of Dolly Khanna.

1) Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances Ltd has turned to be a multibagger for Dolly Khanna. She is quite bullish on this kitchen appliances market leader from last year. In December 2020 quarter she increased the stake from 1.1% to 1.5%. Her portfolio worth in this stock would be somewhere around Rs 6.8 crore in December 2020, the current holding has increased to Rs 21.7 crore due to 3.23x times increase in stock price.

2) Rain Industries Ltd (2.6x times increase in stock price) with 223% return in 10 months

3) KCP Ltd, (2.22x times increase in stock price) with 122% return in 10 months

4) Nitin Spinners Ltd, (1.9x times increase in stock price) with 90% return in 6 months

5) Polyplex Corporation Ltd (1.61x times increase in stock price) with 61% return in 6 months

Dolly Khanna has been investing in the domestic stock market since 1996 and her portfolio is entirely managed by her husband Rajiv Khanna. Dolly and Rajiv raised the initial capital to invest from the sale of their family business named ‘Kwality Milk Foods’. After that, there has been no looking back for the golden couple. The stock picks effortlessly turned into mega multibaggers and have caused a quantum jump in the value of the portfolio.

Investment strategy of Dolly Khanna

These stocks are selected based on few basic parameters, but not limited to,

1) Double-digit sales growth for 3 years or 5 years or 10 years.

2) Double-digit profit growth for 3 years or 5 years.

3) Double-digit ROE for 3 years or 5 years or 10 years.

4) Company P/E is lower than industry P/E.

These are only quantitative factors, a strong business model, effective management, good corporate governance would also come into play.

Do you also look at these parameters while analyzing a company for the long term?

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These stocks see huge volume burst in the last leg of the trading session!

These stocks see huge volume burst in the last leg of the trading session.
by 5paisa Research Team 18/10/2021

Birla Corporation, CESC and Railtel Corporation of India have witnessed volume burst in the last 75-minutes of the trade.

As the saying goes, the first and the last hour of each trading session is the most important and active in terms of price and volume. More so, the activity in the last hour is said to be of utmost importance because most of the pro traders and institutions are active at this time. Hence, when a stock sees a good spike in volume in the last leg of trade along with price rise it is said to be the pro and institutions have a keen interest in the stock. Market participants should keep a close watch on these stocks as they can witness good momentum in the short-medium term.

So, based on this principle we have shortlisted three stocks, which have witnessed volume burst in the last leg of trade along with price rise.  

Birla Corporation: The stock of Birla Corporation gained over 1.5% on Monday. Interestingly, over 60% of the total traded volume of the day was witnessed in the last 75-minutes. Furthermore, the price too witnessed a sharp spike during the last trading hour, which indicates that there was a lot of interest seen in the stock. Hence, market participants can keep a close watch on this stock. In addition to this, the icing on the cake is that the stock closed near days high.

CESC: The stock did not witness any spectacular run for the majority part of the trading session, it was only in the last 75-minutes of the trade, the stock witnessed a massive move along with a price burst. Nearly 75% of the total traded volume of the session was seen in the last 75-minutes of the trade, plus the bulk of the gains too were seen in the same period. Considering the robust price and volume move in the last leg of the session, traders can keep an eye on this stock.

Railtel Corporation of India: The stock gained over 3% on Monday. The bulk of the volume and price activity for the stock was seen in the last 75-minutes of the day. The stock witnessed nearly 70% of the total traded volume of the day in the last 75-minutes of the session. Interestingly, the price action was robust, which indicates that buyers were actively buying the stock. Keep this stock on your radar.

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UltraTech misses Q2 profit estimate, sales growth marginally ahead

by 5paisa Research Team 18/10/2021

UltraTech, the largest cement producer in India, came up with its second-quarter numbers that almost met street expectations with revenue marginally ahead even though net profit was below what analysts were projecting.

Consolidated net profit for the July-September quarter was almost flat at Rs 1,313 crore compared with Rs 1,309 crore in the year-ago period.

Sequentially, net profit declined 22.8%, which was already factored in by analysts, given the impact of higher fuel and logistics costs during the quarter. Standalone net profit rose 7.6% to Rs 1,300 crore.

Analysts were expecting a profit after tax of around Rs 1,350 crore.

The company’s costs spiked as coal and pet coke prices nearly doubled in the quarter, resulting in energy costs shooting up 17% year-on-year. The firm said it expects to commence mining operations at its Bicharpur coal block located in Madhya Pradesh in the October-December quarter that would reduce dependence on coal purchases.

UltraTech’s profit before depreciation, interest and tax was almost flat, rising 0.8% to Rs 2,855 crore on a consolidated basis and 1.6% on a standalone basis to Rs 2,742 crore.

Consolidated sales rose 15.7% to Rs 12,016 crore on a year-on-year basis while it climbed 15.2% on a standalone basis. On a sequential basis, consolidated revenue from operations was up 1.6%. It inched up 0.6% to Rs 11,548 crore at a standalone level.

UltraTech’s stock, which has risen 67% over the last 12 months, pared its early gains during intra-day trade and closed flat at Rs 7,397.70 a share on Monday after declaring its results.

Management Commentary

UltraTech said recovery in rural housing, higher minimum support price for kharif crop, improved foodgrain production in rabi harvest, a third consecutive normal monsoon and a pick-up in infrastructure-led construction activity are likely to drive cement demand off-take.

However, continuous increases in input costs like coal, pet coke, and diesel pose a challenge for the industry.

“UltraTech is confident of weathering the storm of increase in prices of coal, diesel and other inputs, with its sustainable efficiency improvement programs, accompanied by increase in selling prices to absorb the increase in costs,” the firm said.

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Top swing trading ideas you should not miss.

Top swing trading ideas you should not miss.
by 5paisa Research Team 18/10/2021

Best Swing Trading ideas based on price and volume percentage surge. Gujarat Gas, Greenply Industries and Bharat Electronics.

Price and volume are two of the most prominent inputs used by traders across the world while swing trading. When used in isolation, they reveal very little but when used in conjunction, they help us to sort the wheat from the chaff. So, this swing trading system is based on the deadly combination of price and volume percentage surge, which helps us to discover high probability swing-trading candidates.

So, here is the list of stocks that fulfil the criteria of volume and price surge and as a result, they flash in our swing-trading system:

  1. Gujarat Gas: The stock jumped 6% on Monday fresh 52-week high and it managed to close near the day’s high. The stock’s daily range was greater than its 10-day average range. In addition to this, the volume for the day was greater than its previous trading session and in fact it was above its 10 and 30-day average volume. In the near term, the stock has the potential to touch the levels of Rs 690 and Rs 700 on the upside, while on the downside, the support is seen around levels of Rs 640. 

  1. Greenply Industries: The stock rose over 7% on Monday. The stock’s daily range was greater than its 10-day average range. In addition to this, the volume for the day was greater than its previous trading session and in fact, was the highest since August 02. With price and volume criteria met, this stock looks ripe for a decent up-move from current levels in the coming days. Swing traders can keep this on the radar for an up-move towards the level of Rs 218 followed by Rs 225, while immediate support is seen around Rs 202.

  1. Bharat Electronics: The stock has witnessed a breakout of a 12-day flat base pattern along with above-average volume. Volume for the day was not only greater than its previous trading session but also above its 10 and 30-day average volume. In addition to this, the daily range of the stock was twice its 10-day average range. Considering the strong price movement witnessed in the stock along with volume uptick, swing traders should not miss this stock as it can touch levels of Rs 225 in the near to medium term. On the downside, support is seen around Rs 211 levels.

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