Market Sentiment

What is Market sentiment?

Market sentiment is the collective emotional outlook of investors towards a specific investment or the overall financial market. It defines the prevailing mood, where optimism generates bullish sentiment, and pessimism leads to bearish sentiment. This sentiment is observed through price movements, significantly impacting investment decisions and market trends.

Understanding Market Sentiment

Market sentiment, or "investor sentiment," doesn't always rely on fundamentals. It's crucial for day traders and technical analysts who use it to measure and profit from short-term price movements driven by investor attitudes. Contrarian investors, who trade against the consensus, find value in market sentiment. For instance, if everyone buys, contrarians sell.

Market sentiment is often described as bearish (prices falling) or bullish (prices rising). Emotion frequently drives the stock market, distinguishing it from fundamental value tied to business performance.

Investors identify overvalued or undervalued stocks based on market sentiment using indicators like the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), High-Low Index, Bullish Percent Index (BPI), and moving averages.
 

Real-life Examples

In December 2018, market sentiment was pessimistic due to various factors. First, concerns arose over a slowdown in corporate earnings growth, with projections for 2019 earnings as low as 3–4%. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments on the central bank's balance sheet reduction on autopilot were seen as hawkish, further dampening sentiment. 

Additionally, ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, marked by tariff escalations throughout 2018, coupled with a U.S. government shutdown, intensified the negative sentiment. This bearish sentiment led to a historic drop in the stock market, with the S&P 500 declining by 9.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Index falling by 8.7% in December. The S&P 500 High-Low index also reflected the prevailing bearish sentiment.
 

Trading Strategies Based on Market Sentiment

A prevalent approach in interpreting market sentiment involves aligning trading tactics with the prevailing sentiment, proving effective for long-term investors. During bullish sentiment, assets like stocks are expected to appreciate, yielding capital gains and consistent dividend income. However, this alignment can lead to bubbles due to herd behavior and free-rider effects.

In contrast, some investors deliberately counter the prevailing sentiment. Amid extreme pessimism, they seek undervalued stocks with solid fundamentals, offering significant future growth potential at discounted prices.

Similarly, value investors contend that short-term price movements inadequately depict a company's fundamental performance. They identify stocks currently undervalued about their intrinsic value, as markets tend to overreact to news briefly.
 

Indicators to Measure Market Sentiment

Investors often rely on market sentiment indicators to assess the current market mood and find potential investment opportunities. However, it's essential to use these indicators in conjunction with other analyses for a more well-rounded perspective rather than relying on them exclusively. Common sentiment indicators include:

1. Volatility Index (VIX)
2. This is known as the 'fear index,' which assesses signified volatility through options prices. It differs from sentiment indicators focused on the present or past. Elevated implied volatility signals fear of a trend shift, while low volatility indicates stable sentiment and an expected continuation of the current trend.
3. High-Low Index
4. This ratio is a straightforward way to gauge market sentiment, indicating whether the market is bullish or bearish. It involves comparing the number of stocks reaching their highest levels in the past 52 weeks to those hitting 52-week lows. If most stocks are at highs, it suggests bullish sentiment, while if they are closer to lows, it indicates bearish sentiment. This ratio applies to indices like the S&P 500 and NYSE Composite, providing insight into overall market sentiment.
5. Bullish Percent Index (BPI)
6. The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) quantifies the percentage of stocks within a specific index exhibiting bullish trends during a defined timeframe. When the BPI is raised, typically 80% or above, it reflects an optimistic market sentiment. Contrarily, if the BPI registers at 20% or lower, it indicates a negative market sentiment.
7. Moving Averages

A simple moving average assesses the price trends of a specific security or stock index during a specified time frame. Generally, used market sentiment indicators include the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages.

The Impact of Market Sentiment on Prices

Market sentiment influences prices by impacting supply and demand. Traders use sentiment indicators alongside various analyses to improve entry and exit signals. To maximize returns, investors must accurately gauge sentiment and act promptly.

1. Behavioral Finance Theory

Behavioral Finance Theory, as pioneered by Kahneman & Tversky, reveals the psychological "irrationality" in investor behavior. Increasing evidence indicates that investors, in their decisions, often deviate from strict rules and instead are influenced by personal perceptions or the actions of fellow investors.

Investors' cognitive and emotional biases, such as overconfidence in forecasting, reliance on heuristics for allocation, resistance to adapting to new information, and excessive reliance on past performance, notably shape their market behavior, frequently leading to biased investment choices.

2. Animal Spirit Theory

John Maynard Keynes formulated the Animal Spirit Theory. It indicated that cognitive biases come into play when individuals face uncertainty. In such situations, instincts and emotions guide their actions. During market upswings, investors gravitate toward high expectations, allocating their portfolios optimistically.

However, when an eventual market decline occurs, investors become more pessimistic but tend to retain risky portfolios to prevent realizing losses. This behavior, known as herd mentality, is closely tied to market sentiment and can lead to irrational exuberance, often resulting in inefficient pricing and bubbles.
 

Conclusion

In finance, market sentiment is a powerful force driven by emotions and perceptions. It impacts investors' decisions, from day traders to long-term investors, and helps identify opportunities. Market sentiment reminds us that finance is a human endeavor, and understanding it empowers investors to make informed choices in the dynamic world of finance.